Against the backdrop of global climate governance and the transition toward low-carbon development, increasing attention has been paid to carbon emissions embodied in international trade in energy products. As a typical carbon-intensive commodity, oil products pose pressing challenges in terms of carbon accounting, driving mechanisms, and responsibility allocation along cross-regional trade flows. Based on input–output theory, this study quantitatively estimates the embodied carbon emissions associated with China’s oil product trade with its major trading partners and further examines their structural characteristics. Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is employed to identify the key drivers behind changes in embodied carbon emissions and to explore feasible approaches for allocating carbon emission responsibilities across regions. The results indicate that, first, China’s oil product exports are accompanied by a considerable scale of embodied carbon flows, with carbon emissions exhibiting a structurally increasing trend. Second, changes in embodied carbon emissions are jointly driven by export scale effects and structural effects, while technological effects partially offset the upward pressure on carbon emissions. Finally, the contribution of structural effects to embodied carbon growth has intensified in recent years, underscoring the importance of optimizing export product structures for the low-carbon transition of oil product trade. Based on these findings, this study proposes targeted policy implications. At the national level, efforts should focus on optimizing trade structures and promoting technological upgrading to accelerate the transformation of the domestic energy mix. At the international level, it is necessary to advance equitable responsibility sharing and cooperation, while enhancing data sharing and transparency in carbon emissions, thereby promoting harmonization and mutual recognition of standards in carbon data collection, accounting methodologies, and indicator systems across countries.

At present, environmental problems are becoming increasingly severe, and sustainable development concerns the common destiny of all mankind around the world. Leveraging ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity data for Eurasia from 2000 to 2022, this study employs a three-dimensional ecological footprint model to conduct a multi-scale sustainability assessment. Further applying a difference-in-differences model, we analyze the impact mechanisms of the Belt and Road Initiative on Eurasia's ecological footprint. Quantile regression and heterogeneity analysis reveal Belt and Road Initiative's differential effects across countries. Key findings indicate that: (1) Eurasia's unsustainable development intensified from 2000 to 2022, with ecological footprint depth rising from 1.966 to 2.513 ha/cap, while per capita ecological footprint size declined slightly from 1.092 to 1.023 ha/cap. (2) Classifying 83 countries into 9 sustainability types based on ecological footprint depth and size, Asia showed weak sustainability (low size-medium depth and low size-low depth types), while Europe was primarily low size-medium depth with relatively stronger sustainability. Six countries experienced weakened sustainability and six improved. (3) The Belt and Road Initiative significantly increased ecological footprint in Eurasian countries, mediated by industrial structure, technological innovation, and foreign direct investment. Quantile regression indicates Belt and Road Initiative's effect is stronger in nations with lower initial ecological footprint. Heterogeneity analysis further shows Belt and Road Initiative disproportionately impacts countries with lower ecological footprint depth, smaller per capita ecological footprint size, and weaker sustainability. These insights provide critical guidance for implementing the UN 2030 Agenda and formulating Belt and Road Initiative policies to enhance long-term sustainability.