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Original Paper Issue
Record-Shattering High Rainfall in the 2024 First Rainy Season and Its Causes
Journal of Meteorological Research 2026, 40(5): 1550-1562
Published: 20 October 2026
Abstract Collect

The 2024 first rainy season (FRS) was exceptional, characterized by the highest rainfall since 1961 and recurrent, persistent heavy rainfall in South China. FRS rainfall is predominantly frontal and monsoonal before and after the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon, and it ranked highest and fifth-highest during the two stages of the 2024 FRS, respectively. Diagnostic analyses and numerical experiments suggest that warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic and Indian Ocean could excite a lower-tropospheric anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific in both stages, indicating a stronger-than-normal and westward extended western Pacific subtropical high. The latter enhanced the transport of warm, moist air into South China and provided a persistent large-scale background conducive to recurrent heavy rainfall. In contrast, the atmospheric circulation differs between the two stages. During the frontal rainfall stage, the combined effect of the anomalous anticyclone over the Philippines and the one over the Sea of Okhotsk enhanced convergence and ascent over South China. The Philippines anticyclone is driven by active convection near the Maritime Continent and is associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). During the monsoonal rainfall stage, also known as the Dragon Boat Rain stage, a zonally oriented Rossby wave train resembling the British–Okhotsk Corridor pattern facilitated an active Northeast China cold vortex and a resultant southward cold air intrusion, enhancing quasi-stationary dynamic lifting over South China and favoring surplus rainfall. Both the atmospheric circulation and external forcing in 2024 FRS deviate from the conventional knowledge of strong FRS rainfall, posing challenges for seasonal prediction and highlighting the need to better understand and predict record-shattering climate events.

News and Views Issue
The 2024 Asian–Australian Monsoon Year: Widespread Extremes with Notable Subseasonal Variability and Socioeconomic Impacts
Journal of Meteorological Research 2026, 40(2): 301-318
Published: 18 April 2026
Abstract Collect

The 2024 Asian–Australian monsoon (AAM) year, defined as April 2024 to March 2025, was notable. Based on available data, a prolonged rainy season was observed in most parts of the AAM region, except for the Meiyu Region, which corresponds to the area affected by the second stage of the East Asian summer monsoon. The rainy season also featured elevated near-surface air temperatures, a boreal summer rainfall surplus of approximately 20% across South, East, and Mainland Southeast Asia, an austral summer rainfall deficit of approximately 30% in Northern Australia, and a surplus of approximately 30% in the Maritime Continent. During boreal winter, a strong East Asian winter monsoon circulation led to below-average precipitation along East Asia’s climatological rain belt, including South China and Japan, accompanied by above-average near-surface air temperatures. Meanwhile, the 2024 AAM exhibited notable subseasonal variability, with abrupt alternations between dry/drought and wet/flood conditions, as well as between warm and cold episodes over many regions. It was also characterized by widespread extreme events, including but not limited to heavy rainfall, heatwaves, cold surges, and tropical cyclones. Such AAM-associated variability and extremes exerted considerable social impacts and caused substantial economic losses, highlighting the ongoing challenges in understanding and predicting the AAM at regional scales and multiple timescales.

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