Global climate targets require massive economic transformations to achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) neutrality by mid-century. China, as the world's largest emitter, has pledged to peak carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Current domestic policies primarily target the 2030 CO₂ peaking objective, whereas the specific scope and actionable measures for the 2060 neutrality goal remain unclear. However, the critical differences in socioeconomic and technological pathways between realizing CO₂ neutrality versus comprehensive GHG neutrality are not yet well understood. Here we show that achieving GHG neutrality by 2060 demands unprecedented, cross-sectoral mitigation efforts far exceeding those required for CO₂ neutrality. Using a multi-model integrated framework, we demonstrate that GHG neutrality requires a 100% elimination of energy-related CO₂ emissions, compared with a 92% reduction under CO₂ neutrality. Furthermore, non-CO₂ emissions must be slashed by 60% instead of 50%, and the technical demand for carbon capture must expand from 1.3 to 1.9 gigatonnes of CO₂. Reaching this target requires a 15% reduction in total GHG emissions by 2035 and an 85% reduction by 2050 relative to 2030 levels. The findings indicate the necessity of a 2035-focused medium-term climate strategy to connect current policies with long-term objectives. Implementation of these comprehensive roadmaps is essential for directing the broader economy toward sustainable global climate governance.

As the world's biggest carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitter and the largest developing country, China faces daunting challenges to peak its emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality within 40 years. This study fully considered the carbon-neutrality goal and the temperature rise constraints required by the Paris Agreement, by developing six long-term development scenarios, and conducting a quantitative evaluation on the carbon emissions pathways, energy transformation, technology, policy and investment demand for each scenario. This study combined both bottom-up and top-down methodologies, including simulations and analyses of energy consumption of end-use and power sectors (bottom-up), as well as scenario analysis, investment demand and technology evaluation at the macro level (top-down). This study demonstrates that achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 translates to significant efforts and overwhelming challenges for China. To comply with the target, a high rate of an average annual reduction of CO₂ emissions by 9.3% from 2030 to 2050 is a necessity, which requires a huge investment demand. For example, in the 1.5 °C scenario, an investment in energy infrastructure alone equivalent to 2.6% of that year's GDP will be necessary. The technological pathway towards carbon neutrality will rely highly on both conventional emission reduction technologies and breakthrough technologies. China needs to balance a long-term development strategy of lower greenhouse gas emissions that meets both the Paris Agreement and the long-term goals for domestic economic and social development, with a phased implementation for both its five-year and long-term plans.