Global climate targets require massive economic transformations to achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) neutrality by mid-century. China, as the world's largest emitter, has pledged to peak carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Current domestic policies primarily target the 2030 CO₂ peaking objective, whereas the specific scope and actionable measures for the 2060 neutrality goal remain unclear. However, the critical differences in socioeconomic and technological pathways between realizing CO₂ neutrality versus comprehensive GHG neutrality are not yet well understood. Here we show that achieving GHG neutrality by 2060 demands unprecedented, cross-sectoral mitigation efforts far exceeding those required for CO₂ neutrality. Using a multi-model integrated framework, we demonstrate that GHG neutrality requires a 100% elimination of energy-related CO₂ emissions, compared with a 92% reduction under CO₂ neutrality. Furthermore, non-CO₂ emissions must be slashed by 60% instead of 50%, and the technical demand for carbon capture must expand from 1.3 to 1.9 gigatonnes of CO₂. Reaching this target requires a 15% reduction in total GHG emissions by 2035 and an 85% reduction by 2050 relative to 2030 levels. The findings indicate the necessity of a 2035-focused medium-term climate strategy to connect current policies with long-term objectives. Implementation of these comprehensive roadmaps is essential for directing the broader economy toward sustainable global climate governance.

China's peak carbon and carbon neutrality policy targets are accelerating the low-carbon transition of China's energy system. A clear, complete picture of the future low-carbon energy system is needed to provide forward-looking guidance for coordinated country-wide actions. However, there are few studies of the characteristics and sensitivities of China's future low-carbon energy supply. This paper presents a coupled energy-material flow analysis with a sensitivity analysis as a measurement basis for the 2050 low-carbon energy supply system that shows the overall energy flows and the carbon dioxide sources and sinks with analyses of the impacts on the total carbon dioxide emissions caused by changing the structures and efficiencies of the main components. The results indicate that the low-carbon energy system will have some key patterns including a primary energy and power generation structure dominated by non-fossil fuel energy supplies and a high proportion of electricity use in end-use sectors. The carbon dioxide emissions will include negative emissions by the power sector and large emissions by the industrial sector. The total carbon dioxide emissions of this system are most sensitive to changes in the share of electricity use by the industrial sector and changes in the fossil energy power generation efficiencies, followed by the proportion of wind power generation, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) for coal power generation, and the use of waste heat power generation. Therefore, the government needs to strictly control the direct end-use of fossil energy, accelerate low-carbon power generation development, strengthen the development of low-carbon pathways for difficult to reform emission sectors, and increase non-electric utilization of non-fossil energy sources. The government must also encourage the vigorous development of smart energy systems to ensure multi-energy usage systems.

As the world's biggest carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitter and the largest developing country, China faces daunting challenges to peak its emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality within 40 years. This study fully considered the carbon-neutrality goal and the temperature rise constraints required by the Paris Agreement, by developing six long-term development scenarios, and conducting a quantitative evaluation on the carbon emissions pathways, energy transformation, technology, policy and investment demand for each scenario. This study combined both bottom-up and top-down methodologies, including simulations and analyses of energy consumption of end-use and power sectors (bottom-up), as well as scenario analysis, investment demand and technology evaluation at the macro level (top-down). This study demonstrates that achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 translates to significant efforts and overwhelming challenges for China. To comply with the target, a high rate of an average annual reduction of CO₂ emissions by 9.3% from 2030 to 2050 is a necessity, which requires a huge investment demand. For example, in the 1.5 °C scenario, an investment in energy infrastructure alone equivalent to 2.6% of that year's GDP will be necessary. The technological pathway towards carbon neutrality will rely highly on both conventional emission reduction technologies and breakthrough technologies. China needs to balance a long-term development strategy of lower greenhouse gas emissions that meets both the Paris Agreement and the long-term goals for domestic economic and social development, with a phased implementation for both its five-year and long-term plans.