This study conducted a long-term assessment of landscape ecological risk and its stability to provide a scientific basis for precise ecological risk prevention and control and for the construction of regional ecological security patterns in arid regions.

Based on five periods of land-use data from 2000 to 2020, the landscape ecological risk index was calculated to evaluate the regional landscape ecological risk status. A stability matrix was constructed by integrating slope trend analysis with the coefficient of variation to reveal the evolutionary patterns and stability characteristics of ecological risks.

1) Moderate-risk areas accounted for the largest proportion of the study area (approximately 53%), followed by low-risk areas (approximately 25%), whereas high-risk areas accounted for only about 2.5% and were largely confined to the oasis belts along the margins of the Tarim and Junggar Basins. 2) Landscape ecological risk exhibited a stable and improving trend during the study period, with stable-risk and decreasing-risk areas jointly accounting for 82.59% of the total area. Areas with decreasing risk were mainly located in the central Tianshan Mountains, whereas stable-risk areas were widespread across most of Xinjiang. 3) the stable risk-change type was dominant, covering 70.09% of the total area. Areas characterized by slight but persistent risk increases and fluctuating risk increases together accounted for 17.57% of the region and were mainly located in ecologically sensitive mountainous areas and the oasis belts surrounding the basins, indicating that localized areas remain vulnerable to increasing and unstable ecological risks.

Landscape ecological risk in Xinjiang is generally dominated by moderate and low levels. Its spatial differentiation and fluctuation characteristics are jointly influenced by the intensity of human activities and the sensitivity of the ecological background. Differentiated zonal management and control measures should be formulated for different types of risk change.