Tropical Cyclone (TC) genesis forecasting is an important aspect of early warning systems, as it allows the adoption of early warnings and mitigation plans. However, existing methods often rely on binary classification or fail to capture the complex spatio-temporal dependencies that govern TC formation. To address this limitation, this study introduces STAG-Net, a novel Spatio-Temporal Attention-Gated Network designed to directly predict the geographical coordinates of TC genesis. The model uses multivariate variables of meteorological factors such as u-wind, v-wind, relative humidity, temperature, and large-scale dynamic features using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), and a channel-wise attention mechanism in identifying both spatial and temporal characteristics. The methodology takes the initial tropical disturbance data as an input and obtains spatial features in the ERA5 reanalysis dataset that covers 37 isobaric pressure levels. The study also investigates the effect of grid resolution on prediction performance, as four grid sizes were compared, namely
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Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2026, 147(2): 38
Published: 27 May 2026
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