Groundwater constitutes the primary freshwater resource in semi-arid regions, where low and erratic rainfall combined with high evapotranspiration limit effective recharge. Jaipur, a rapidly expanding metropolitan city in western India, is experiencing increasing groundwater stress due to the combined influence of climatic variability and anthropogenic pressures. While groundwater depletion in Rajasthan is well documented, the extent to which interannual climatic variability, particularly rainfall fluctuations, translates into measurable groundwater-level response in urban fractured hard-rock aquifer systems remains uncertain. This study evaluates groundwater-level dynamics (2013–2023) in relation to climatic variability and examines the apparent decoupling between climatic signals and groundwater response under combined hydrogeological and anthropogenic influences in Jaipur. Groundwater and gridded climatic datasets were analyzed using geospatial mapping, kriging-based spatial interpolation, and correlation-based statistical approaches. Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall correlation methods were employed to assess statistical relationships. Interannual groundwater variations were further analyzed to characterize temporal depletion patterns. In addition, event-based proxy analysis using extreme precipitation indices (R×1d and R×5d) was conducted to evaluate the influence of short-duration and cumulative rainfall events on groundwater response. Results indicate weak and spatially inconsistent relationships between climatic variables and groundwater levels, suggesting that groundwater response cannot be adequately explained by linear climatic relationships alone and is influenced by non-linear and lagged recharge processes. A strong inverse correlation between relative humidity and evapotranspiration (r = −0.9272, p < 0.0001) highlights the dominant role of atmospheric moisture conditions in regulating evapotranspiration fluxes, with implications for reduced effective recharge. These findings suggest that groundwater dynamics in the study area exhibit partial decoupling from climatic variability, likely driven by hydrogeological constraints and sustained anthropogenic pressures. This underscores the importance of adopting integrated groundwater management strategies that account for both climatic variability and anthropogenic pressures.