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Dynamical analysis and Hopf bifurcation of an SEIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and time-delayed behavioral response
Electronic Research Archive 2026, 34(7): 5023-5039
Published: 15 July 2026
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In this paper, an SEIR epidemic dynamical model incorporating a fear effect, a nonlinear incidence rate, and a time-delayed behavioral response was established. The basic reproduction number R 0 was derived using the next-generation matrix method. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that if R 0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if R 0 > 1, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium, which is also globally asymptotically stable. By performing stability analysis, the critical time delay threshold τ 0 for triggering a Hopf bifurcation was derived. Moreover theoretical analysis and numerical simulations consistently showed that when the time delay exceeds this threshold, the endemic equilibrium loses its stability and a stable limit cycle is generated, leading to periodic epidemic outbreaks. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis revealed an inverse relationship between fear coefficient α and the critical time delay threshold τ 0 .

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