Publications
Sort:
Open Access Research Article Issue
Epidemic model with time delays and fertility/mortality rates
AIMS Mathematics 2025, 10(11): 25849-25878
Published: 10 November 2025
Abstract PDF (1.5 MB) Collect
Downloads:2

We developed a delayed SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model incorporating infectious/immune periods and demographics (fertility and mortality rates), proving the existence, nonnegativity, and uniqueness of solutions for the system under demographic equilibrium. Analysis confirmed a threshold at R 0 = 1, with an endemic equilibrium emerging when R 0 > 1. Crucially, the stability of this endemic state was governed by a critical mortality rate ( μ c ). High-mortality populations ( μ > μ c ) exhibited a stable endemic state, whereas low-mortality populations ( μ < μ c ) experienced instability and sustained oscillations. For these low-mortality populations, critical thresholds for the transmission rate ( β c ) and disease duration ( τ 1 c ) were identified, beyond which destabilization occurred. This demonstrated a fundamental dual dependence of long-term disease dynamics on both demographic (e.g., life expectancy) and epidemiological (e.g., transmission rate, disease duration) parameters. Consequently, public health strategies (like vaccination targets) may need adjustment based on a population's demographic structure, not just its immediate epidemiological characteristics.

Total 1