This study explores how an individual's birth order within the family shapes their potential to become a member of the national management elite. Using data from the 2010 adult sample of the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS), we find that only children do not have a distinct advantage over non-only children in attaining positions as management elites in the public sector. In fact, they are significantly less likely to become management elites in the market sector. In multi-sibling families, an earlier birth order generally correlates with a higher probability of becoming a management elite, particularly among males. An exception to this pattern is a second-born son, who exhibits the highest probability of entering the management elite. A further analysis of sibling structure reveals that this is due to the second-born son effectively assuming the role of the “first-born” in the family. Further investigation shows that when the second-born has an elder sister, it is the number of siblings, rather than their gender composition, that significantly increases his chances of becoming a member of the management elite.

Sectoral analysis indicates that first-born children and de facto first-born children are more likely to occupy management positions in the public sector, both at the grassroots and the senior levels, whereas this effect is not significant in the market sector. Mechanism analysis suggests that non-cognitive abilities, educational attainment, party membership, and military service are key drivers behind the birth order effect, while the influence of experiences as a “sent-down youth” appears to be limited. The robustness of the results holds even after excluding samples born after the 1979 family planning policy, controlling for cohort effects, or using different dependent variables.

This study has two key implications for public policy makers: first, they should recognize the potential influence of birth order on decision-making behavior; second, it offers empirical support for optimizing fertility policy design, encouraging a greater understanding of the long-term impact of the number of siblings, rather than the gender structure, on child development.