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A Bayesian cure rate model using the Bell–Touchard distribution and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods
AIMS Mathematics 2026, 11(3): 8792-8811
Published: 15 March 2026
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We proposed a novel cure rate model in which the number of competing causes follows a Bell–Touchard distribution. We derived its main mathematical properties and implemented Bayesian inference using the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm. A simulation study was conducted to assess the finite-sample performance of the estimators. The model's applicability was demonstrated using two real datasets: patients with melanoma and patients with cardiovascular disease. In the latter dataset, diabetic patients exhibited higher estimated cure and survival probabilities than non-diabetic individuals, potentially reflecting phenomena such as "reverse epidemiology" or intensified clinical management.

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