This paper introduces a novel non-homogeneous stochastic diffusion process, useful for modeling both decreasing and increasing trend data. The model is based on a generalized Gamma-like curve. We derive the probabilistic characteristics of the proposed process, including a closed-form unique solution to the stochastic differential equation, the transition probability density function, and both conditional and unconditional trend functions. The process parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood (ML) method with discrete sampling paths. A small Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to evaluate the finite sample behavior of the trend function. The practical utility of the proposed process is demonstrated by fitting it to two real-world data sets, one exhibiting a decreasing trend and the other an increasing trend.
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Article type
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Open Access
Research Article
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AIMS Mathematics 2024, 9(10): 27687-27703
Published: 15 October 2024
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