High-speed railway development in Vietnam requires an early assessment of wheel-rail degradation mechanisms. This study investigates wheel wear evolution and rolling contact fatigue (RCF) risk under representative high-speed operating conditions.

A numerical framework integrating multibody vehicle dynamics and wear prediction modelling is developed. Vehicle-track interaction is simulated in VI-Rail using a standard ERRI passenger bogie model. Key wheel-rail contact parameters, including normal forces, creepages and contact locations, are extracted and used in an Archard-based wear model to predict wheel profile evolution, while RCF risk is assessed using Hertzian contact stress indicators.

The results show that wheel wear alters tread geometry, with a maximum wear depth of approximately 0.2–0.4 mm, affecting vehicle dynamics. The critical speed varies non-monotonically, increasing by about 3–5% at early stages and decreasing by 10–15% with further wear. Track irregularities raise creepage to the order of 10?³ and increase wear rate by 20–30%. These effects also indicate an elevated risk of RCF.

The study provides a multibody dynamics-based framework for analysing wheel wear and RCF in prospective Vietnamese high-speed railway applications. The proposed framework also provides a scientific basis for assessing wheel degradation and supporting infrastructure design, operational planning and predictive maintenance in high-speed railway systems.