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Open Access Original Article Issue
Radiomics‐Based Machine Learning Model Enhances Lymph Node Metastasis Prediction and Prognostic Stratification in Colorectal Cancer
Medicine Advances 2025, 3(4): 243-255
Published: 13 January 2026
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Background

Pre‐operative prediction of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) is challenging, yet crucial for prognosis and treatment. This study aimed to develop and validate a computed tomography‐based radiomics model to predict LNM preoperatively and to investigate its prognostic value.

Methods

A total of 587 individuals with histologically confirmed CRC from two medical centers were retrospectively analyzed. From these, 257, 109, and 221 were allocated to training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. A total of 1781 radiomics features were obtained from portal venous‐phase computed tomography images. After feature selection, five machine learning classifiers were developed and compared. The optimal radiomics model was integrated with significant clinical predictors to develop a combined model whose performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristics, calibration, and decision curves. The model's prognostic value was determined using Kaplan–Meier curve and Cox regression analyses.

Results

Among the models, an extreme gradient boosting classifier demonstrated the best performance, achieving area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.826, 0.807, and 0.752 in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. The combined model integrating radiomics features and carcinoembryonic antigen levels showed higher predictive value, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.842, 0.812, and 0.770 for the three cohorts. Risk stratification based on the combined model effectively identified patients with significantly different overall survival and disease‐free survival (log‐rank test, all p < 0.05). The model remained an independent predictor of both disease‐free survival (hazard ratio = 2.857, 95% confidence interval: 1.694–4.818) and overall survival (hazard ratio = 1.975, 95% confidence interval: 1.001–3.919) in multivariable Cox analysis.

Conclusions

Our proposed radiomics‐based model demonstrated good performance in preoperative prediction of LNM and could provide valuable prognostic information for patients with CRC.

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