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Original Paper Issue
Mapping Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall across Diverse Climatic Zones and Terrains in China Using a Regionally Adaptive Index
Journal of Meteorological Research 2026, 40(5): 1605-1621
Published: 20 October 2026
Abstract Collect

Short-duration heavy rainfall (SHR) is a major hazard, but conventional methods using fixed thresholds or percentile extremes struggle to identify locally impactful events and preclude objective cross-regional comparisons. This paper introduces a novel SHR intensity index that quantifies an SHR event’s local extremity relative to its climatic background. This is achieved by normalizing the exceedance beyond the historical 95th percentile precipitation using the standard deviation of values above that percentile. Applied to hourly data from 2422 stations (2010–2022), the index identifies three intensity tiers, with Tier 2 and above representing higher-impact SHR events. Key findings include: (1) The new index reveals SHR hotspots not only in humid southeastern China but also in arid/semi-arid northwestern and northern regions, which are largely missed by the conventional 20 mm h−1 threshold. (2) SHR exhibits distinct regionality: frequency peaks in South China, while extreme-intensity events (Tier 3) are most frequent over the mid–lower Yangtze River basin. Diurnal cycles vary from nocturnal peaks in the Sichuan basin to afternoon maxima in North China. (3) Long-duration SHR events (≥ 4 h) also impact dry western and northern regions. (4) Underlying surfaces modulate SHR: within the same region, hills promote higher afternoon SHR frequency, while plains exhibit greater average intensity. For similar surface types, wetter southern regions show higher frequency and intensity than drier northern ones. This regionally adaptive index provides a transferable framework for identifying locally impactful SHR, offering enhanced utility for regional hazard assessment, forecasting, and climate adaptation planning.

Article Issue
Characteristics of a back-building mesoscale convective system causing short-duration heavy rainfall in Zhejiang province
Acta Meteorologica Sinica 2025, 83(5): 1152-1168
Published: 28 October 2025
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Back-building MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems) are highly conductive to sudden, localized short-duration heavy rainfall. In order to reveal the characteristics of this type of MCS and its association with heavy rainfall, this study systematically studies spatial and temporal distribution of back-building MCSs that triggered short-duration heavy rainfall during the warm seasons from 2015 to 2021 in Zhejiang province. Different organizational forms and environmental thermodynamic factors of different types are also explored. The results show that back-building MCSs in Zhejiang province exhibit significant monthly and diurnal variation patterns, i.e., MCSs mainly occur in June and July with peak hourly rainfall intensities of 30 and 50 mm in these two months, respectively. The MCS primarily form between 11:00 and 14:00 BT, with the highest frequency of formation occurring between 12:00 and 13:00 BT. The majority of MCSs have a duration of 12 h or less, with 10 h duration being the most common. The start time of backward propagation shows a quasi-bimodal pattern, which is 2—3 h later than the main formation time of the MCS. For 90% of the cases, the time of maximum hourly rainfall intensity occur within 0—2.5 h after the onset of the backward propagation. Based on the evolution characteristics of convective system organization, the back-building MCSs with short-duration heavy rainfall in Zhejiang province can be categorized into four types: Advective, quasi-stationary, turning, and propagating MCS, with about 42% occuring under the forcing of weak synoptic-scale system. The MCS usually occurs in an environment with medium convective available potential energy (CAPE), high humidity and appropriate vertical wind shear, but with different environmental factors for different types. The quasi-stationary MCSs account for the largest proportion (44.7%) and are characterized by significant environmental dynamic features, including strong atmospheric instability, large steering flow, and mid-to-lower-level vertical wind shear. They result in relatively weak maximum hourly rainfall intensity (the median is 50 mm/h). Propagating MCSs (accounting for about 17%) exhibit more distinct environmental thermodynamic characteristics with large CAPE and precipitable water (PW), and lead to the strongest maximum hourly rainfall intensity (the median is 70 mm/h).

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