In the case of lack of information, how to improve the reliability of the evaluation of the damage effect of multiple missiles against irregular surface targets is a major difficulty in the research of missile operation. An evaluation model for the damage effect on area targets with given parameters was established using the Monte Carlo method. Belief degree distribution functions were employed to assess the uncertainties in the problem, and the assessment results showed a high level of uncertainty in the damage effect. Based on belief entropy, the influence of the uncertainty in each attribute of the missile on the uncertainty of the damage effect was analyzed. By specifically reducing the uncertainty of attributes with significant impact, the uncertainty of the damage effect was iteratively decreased. Simulation results show that the range of uncertainty for the effective damage rate of the area target is significantly reduced. This research can effectively guide the work of damage assessment and reduce its uncertainty.

The focus and challenge of research on the operational application of anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) is how to achieve a more accurate kill effectiveness in a highly adversarial and information-incomplete environment. A research framework designed to iteratively reduce the uncertainty of ASBM kill effectiveness is proposed. A simulation model for the evaluation of kill efficiency is established. The uncertainty (unknowns) of influencing factors is characterized by belief degree distribution functions. The belief degree distribution function of kill efficiency is computed based on the simulation model. Additionally, belief entropy is used to examine the global impact measure on the indeterminacy of kill efficiency caused by each element. In the example provided, the unknown range of kill probability is reduced from 0.2～0.6 to 0.41～0.5. The proposed method provides a new way of thinking for the evaluation of the operational effectiveness of military equipment.