In order to further grasp the expansion scope and degree of damage of P. lateralis in China and provide a theoretical basis, we predicted and analyzed the potential distribution of Phytophthora lateralis in China, elucidated its dynamics in the past, current and future (2030s and 2070s) environments, and investigated the influence of environmental factors on its potential distribution.

Firstly, a global sample distribution of 56 data points on the P. lateralis was obtained using the R language and ArcGIS screening. Secondly, based on the Pearson's correlation test, the screening process was completed to identify 9 environmental factors required for modelling. Then, the MaxEnt model was called to predict the distribution of P. lateralis and the ArcGIS software was used to simulate the habitats of it in China. Finally, the dominant environmental factors and threshold ranges of the habitats were assessed based on the knife-cut method, and the reliability of the model results was assessed using the subjects’ job characteristic curves (AUC).

1) The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the MaxEnt model predictions was found to be greater than 0.90 in all cases; 2) The most significant environmental factors influencing the distribution of suitable areas for P. lateralis are seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation, with the most notable being SP4, SP26, Bio 6, Bio12 and Bio17. And P. lateralis is suitable to grow in the environment where SP4 is 4.0%-6.1% and 6.9%-9.3%, SP26 is 4.0%-9.3%, Bio6 is -4.5-3.7 ℃, Bio12 is higher than 937 mm, and the Bio17 is higher than 56 mm; 3) The results of the model predictions indicate that the high and medium fertile areas of P. lateralis in China are primarily concentrated in central, southern and eastern China, with a total area of 283.95×10⁴ km². In the future, under different climate scenarios, P. lateralis suitable area is expected to expand to encompass China's tropical, subtropical and warm temperate zones. The area of suitable habitat for it is predicted to expand, with the largest area of new suitable habitat predicted under the SSP245 climate scenario for the 2070s. The current centre of mass of the P. lateralis fertile area is located in Cuoqin County, Ali Prefecture, Xizang autonomous region, China. However, there is a tendency for the centre of mass of its fertile area to migrate to junction of Hunan, Hubei, Guizhou and Chongqing provinces in future.

The MaxEnt model offers an accurate reflection of the distribution characteristics of P. lateralis in China. The species’ suitable area is mainly distributed south of the Yangtze River, and temperature and precipitation are the main limiting environmental factors affecting its growth in China. It is anticipated that future climate warming will result in alterations to the habitat of P. lateralis, with an expansion of its range towards high-latitude and high-altitude areas.