Publications
Sort:
Issue
Evaluation of construction safety resilience of water conservancy projects based on D-S evidence theory and intuitionistic fuzzy Bayesian networks
Journal of Economics of Water Resources 2026, 44(3): 82-89
Published: 30 May 2026
Abstract PDF (1.6 MB) Collect
Downloads:0

To improve the construction safety level of water conservancy projects and carry out research on construction safety resilience, this paper proposes a safety resilience evaluation method integrating intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and Bayesian network model. From the three dimensions of absorptive capacity, recovery capacity and adaptive capacity, the influencing factors of construction safety resilience of water conservancy projects are identified. The interpretive structural model is adopted to analyze the hierarchical relationship among resilience influencing factors and construct the topological framework of Bayesian network. The D-S evidence theory is used to transform experts’ intuitive fuzzy linguistic evaluation results into probability parameters of network nodes. The topological framework of Bayesian network is applied to carry out forward reasoning calculation of resilience, the dominant path chain of resilience is analyzed combined with backward reasoning, and the key influencing factors of resilience are identified through sensitivity analysis. Taking the Comprehensive Regulation Project of the Lower Reaches and Tailwaters of the Ganjiang and Fuhe Rivers as a case study, the construction safety resilience is evaluated. The results show that the probability of high safety resilience of the project construction system reaches 71.74%, reflecting an overall good level of construction safety resilience. The dominant resilience path chain is safety organization and management structure-emergency response plan-emergency disposal capacity-resilience, and the safety monitoring system together with emergency response plan serve as the key influencing factors.

Issue
Assessment of operation safety resilience of water conservancy projects based on cloud model
Water Resources Protection 2023, 39(2): 208-214
Published: 20 March 2023
Abstract PDF (2.5 MB) Collect
Downloads:1

In order to accurately evaluate the operation safety level of water conservancy projects, the resilience theory was introduced into the safety operation management of water conservancy projects, and the evaluation indexes system of the operation safety resilience of water conservancy projects was constructed. The order relation method (G1 method) was used to obtain the independent weight of the resilience index, the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method was used to quantify the correlation weight of the resilience index, and the game theory was used to determine the combined weight. and a cloud model-based method for assessing the operation safety resilience of water conservancy projects was proposed. This method was used to evaluate the operation safety resilience of Jiangdu Water Control Project from 2017 to 2021. The results show that the operation safty resilience of Jiangdu Water Control Project has been improved year by year and reaches a high level of resilience. The evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation, which verifies the correctness and reliability of the method.

Total 2