A model for predicting the shelf-life of Daliangshan hand-torn duck at different storage temperatures was established. Changes in the sensory score, total volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N), peroxide value (POV), thiobarbituric acid (TBA) value, and a* value of dry salted duck stored at 25, 30 or 37 ℃ were analyzed and the correlation among them was examined. Chemical reaction kinetic equations and the Arrhenius equation were used to develop a shelf-life prediction model for hand-torn dried duck. The results showed that the sensory score, a*, water activity (a_w) and pH decreased with storage time, irrespective of storage temperature, while the opposite trend was observed for the TVB-N, POV and TBA value. The changing trend was 37 ℃ > 30 ℃ > 25 ℃. Pearson’s correlation coefficients between the sensory attributes and the physicochemical indexes showed TVB-N to be an effective quality index to predict the shelf-life of hand-torn dried duck. According to the proposed prediction model, the estimated shelf-life of dry salted duck was 305, 255 and 204 d at 25, 30 and 37 ℃, respectively. Within the first 100 days of storage, the relative deviation between the predicted value and the measured value was less than 10%, demonstrating high accuracy and reliability of the model. In conclusion, this model could allow quick and reliable prediction of the shelf-life of dry salted duck.