Recently, deep neural networks have been widely used to solve financial risk modeling and forecasting challenges. Following this hotspot, this paper presents a mixture model for conditional volatility probability forecasting based on the deep autoregressive network and the Gaussian mixture model under the GARCH framework. An efficient algorithm for the model is developed. Both simulation and empirical results show that our model predicts conditional volatilities with smaller errors than the classical GARCH and ANN-GARCH models.
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Article type
Year
Open Access
Research Article
Issue
Electronic Research Archive 2023, 31(7): 3814-3831
Published: 15 July 2023
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