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Asset selection based on estimating stress-strength probabilities: The case of returns following three-parameter generalized extreme value distributions
AIMS Mathematics 2024, 9(1): 2345-2368
Published: 15 January 2024
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Analyzing the statistical behavior of the assets' returns has shown to be an interesting approach to perform asset selection. In this work, we explore a stress-strength reliability approach to perform asset selection based on probabilities of the type P ( X < Y ) when both X and Y follow a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution with three parameters. At first, we derive new analytical and closed form relations in terms of the extreme value H -function, which have been obtained under fewer parameter restrictions compared to similar results in the literature. To show the performance of our results, we include a Monte-Carlo simulation study and we investigate the application of the reliability measure P ( X < Y ) in selecting financial assets with returns characterized by the distributions X and Y. Therefore, rather than the conventional approach of comparing the expected values of X and Y based on modern portfolio theory, we delve into the metric P ( X < Y ) as an alternative parameter for assessing better returns.

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