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Stochastic analysis for measles transmission with Lévy noise: a case study
AIMS Mathematics 2023, 8(8): 18696-18716
Published: 15 August 2023
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In this paper, we deal with a Lévy noise-driven epidemic model reflecting the dynamics of measles infection subject to the effect of vaccination. After model formulation, the feasibility of the system was studied by using the underlying existence and uniqueness theory. Moreover, we discussed the behavior of solution around the infection-free and disease-present steady states. To check the persistence and extinction of the infection, we calculated the threshold parameter R s and it was determined that the disease vanishes whenever R s < 1. From January to October 2019, the reported measles cases in Pakistan wear used and the model was fitted against this data by using the well-known fitting techniques. The values of the parameter were estimated and future behavior of the infection was predicted by simulating the model. The model was further simulated and theoretical findings of the study were validated.

Open Access Research Article Issue
Determining the global threshold of an epidemic model with general interference function and high-order perturbation
AIMS Mathematics 2022, 7(11): 19865-19890
Published: 15 November 2022
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This research provides an improved theoretical framework of the Kermack-McKendrick system. By considering the general interference function and the polynomial perturbation, we give the sharp threshold between two situations: the disappearance of the illness and the ergodicity of the higher-order perturbed system. Obviously, the ergodic characteristic indicates the continuation of the infection in the population over time. Our study upgrades and enhances the work of Zhou et al. (2021) and suggests a new path of research that will serve as a basis for future investigations. As an illustrative application, we discuss some special cases of the polynomial perturbation to examine the precision of our outcomes. We deduce that higher order fluctuations positively affect the illness extinction time and lead to its rapid disappearance.

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