Returning straw to the field and applying nitrogen fertilizer can increase crop productivity. However, under the conditions of climate change, the different management measures have great uncertainty in the nitrogen utilization of summer maize farmland. It is very important to clarify the impact of straw returning and nitrogen fertilizer types on summer maize yield and soil ammonia volatilization under future climate conditions.

This study used the DNDC model to predict the impact of returning straw to the field and different types of nitrogen fertilizers on summer maize yield and soil ammonia volatilization accumulation in Guanzhong area under different scenarios in the future. Through the verification of field soil temperature, moisture, yield and soil ammonia volatilization test data, the DNDC model could simulate crop yields and soil ammonia volatilization accumulations under different treatments under the future climate conditions well.

Both simulation and actual measurement results showed that returning straw to the field increased summer maize yields and promoted soil ammonia volatilization under the current climate conditions. Compared with ordinary urea, slow-release fertilizers had no significant effect on summer maize yield but would significantly reduce soil ammonia volatilization accumulation. Sensitivity analysis showed that both crop yield and soil ammonia volatilization accumulation were the most sensitive to nitrogen application. Under the RCP4.5 emission scenario, the single application of stable nitrogen fertilizer (NF1) treatment and single application of urea (NF2) treatment significantly reduced the summer maize yield in 2050s-2090s and 2070s-2090s, respectively. Both the treatment of straw combined with stable nitrogen fertilizer (SF1) and the treatment of straw combined with urea (SF2) significant increased summer maize yield in 2050s-2090s; under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, NF1 significantly reduced the summer maize yield from 2070s to 2090s, and NF2 showed no significant change. The summer maize yields under SF1 and SF2 were increased significantly from 2050s to 2090s. For NF1 under the RCP4.5 emission scenario in 2050s-2090s and under the RCP8.5 emission scenario 2030s-2090s, the soil ammonia volatilization accumulation significantly increased compared with current climate conditions; for the remaining treatments, the cumulative amount of soil ammonia volatilization in future periods under different emission scenarios would be significantly reduce compared with current climatic conditions.

The DNDC forecast results showed that under the climate conditions of rising temperature and CO₂ concentration and changing precipitation in the Guanzhong area in the future, the returning straw to the field and applying stable nitrogen fertilizer would significantly increase the summer maize yield and reduce the accumulation of ammonia volatilization in the soil, and it was the best high-yield and emission-reducing farmland management plan. This research provided a theoretical basis for coping with climate change and the rational use of straw and nitrogen fertilizer.