Global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have rebounded rapidly and continued to grow since 2021, raising concerns that the remaining global carbon budget consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C may be exhausted by 2024. This study projects global CO₂ emissions for 2025 by analyzing daily patterns and anomalies throughout the year. Using the daily activity data and/or proxies from January 1, 2019 to September 30, 2025, we estimate the emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and industrial processes across seven global sectors. Our results indicate a slight increase (0.6%, 2σ = −1.1% to 2.2%; total 104.1 ± 1.74 Mt CO₂ per day) in global CO₂ emissions by the end of 2025. The flattening of emissions is mainly driven by reductions in China’s daily emissions (−1.2% ± 1.6%) due to a shift toward non-fossil-fuel generation in the power sector. In contrast, the emissions from other major emitters—the United States (2.7% ± 2.2%), India (0.4% ± 1.6%), and the European Union (0.9% ± 3.3%)—are expected to rise. The discrepancy between daily emissions and baseline projections suggests a structural transformation of the global energy system, which remains vulnerable to extreme weather and surging demand. Moreover, energy strategies in some countries that contradict their emission-reduction commitments may further delay the global emissions peak.

Assessing carbon-negative and carbon-neutral strategies is critical for mitigating and adapting to global climate change. However, significant contributions to the carbon neutrality target from global green energy generation have not been adequately represented by current carbon accounting principles that focus mainly on direct carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Scope 1), emissions from imported electricity (Scope 2), and supply chain emissions (Scope 3). We propose a new framework to account for “avoided carbon emissions” or Scope 4 emissions by defining them as the avoided emissions resulting from the use of noncarbon energy or the combustion of carbon-negative products instead of fossil fuels. This framework reflects the contributions of the development of carbon-neutral energy systems and carbon-negative technologies to global climate mitigation.