This paper constructs a three-economy input-output model for China, the United States, and the rest of the world based on Global Input-Output Tables from 1997 to 2020, analyzing the medium- and long-term change characteristics of domestic multiplier effects, inter-country feedback effects, and spillover effects on the real output and output growth of China and the United States. The results show that domestic multiplier effects explain more than 80% of output growth in both countries, but inter-economy spillover effects have become a non-negligible influencing factor. The three types of effect coefficients indicate that China’s domestic industrial linkages and external connectivity are stronger than those of the United States. Additionally, China’s output growth relies more on changes in the three types of coefficients, while the United States depends more on changes in its own final goods production scale. Further analysis of spillover effects reveals that China’s spillover impact on the United States is increasing, while the U.S. spillover impact on China is decreasing, and the mutual spillover effects between China and the rest of the world are both strengthening. These characteristics are also evident across the eight primary industrial sectors. In the future, the risk of economic “decoupling” between China and the United States remains high, and strengthening economic ties between China and other global economies is a necessary path for China’s sustained and healthy economic development.

This study mainly discusses how the change of final demand structure affects the dynamic evolution of the industrial structure in China. Based on the input-output analysis, an LMDI decomposition model is constructed, and the main factors that influence the change of industrial structure in China during a long period (1997—2018), as well as two short periods (1997—2008 and 2008—2018), are analyzed from an empirical point of view. The study found that both in the long period and two short periods, only the direction of industrial structural change induced by the change of ‘demand mode’ is highly consistent with that of the three industrial structures on the supply side, which indicates the changes in the two specific aspects of final demand are the principal factors to the change of industrial structure in China. In the structure of the two specific demands, the change of industry structure in final demand plays a more significant role than that of the overall structural change. From a further analysis, among all variations of final demand, the domestic consumption contributes the greatest impact, and domestic investment follows, but the exports of intermediate goods and final goods play the least significant role. With a trend that domestic consumption is increasingly becoming the main driving force of China’s economic development, the increasing proportion of China’s tertiary industry’s value added will be a long-term development trend. And moderately expanding the scale of investment and export in final demand can postpone the decreasing trend in the share of secondary industry in China’s economy, especially the ‘too early and too fast’ declining trend of manufacturing.