Breast cancer was the most common cancer and the fifth cause of cancer deaths among women in China in 2015. The evaluation of the long-term incidence and mortality trends and the prediction of the future burden of breast cancer could provide valuable information for developing prevention and control strategies.

The burden of breast cancer in China in 2015 was estimated by using qualified data from 368 cancer registries from the National Central Cancer Registry. Incident cases and deaths in 22 cancer registries were used to assess the time trends from 2000 to 2015. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the burden of breast cancer to 2030.

Approximately 303,600 new cases of breast cancer (205,100 from urban areas and 98,500 from rural areas) and 70,400 breast cancer deaths (45,100 from urban areas and 24,500 from rural areas) occurred in China in 2015. Urban regions of China had the highest incidence and mortality rates. The most common histological subtype of breast cancer was invasive ductal carcinoma, followed by invasive lobular carcinoma. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates increased by 3.3% and 1.0% per year during 2000–2015, and were projected to increase by more than 11% until 2030. Changes in risk and demographic factors between 2015 and 2030 in cases are predicted to increase by approximately 13.3% and 22.9%, whereas deaths are predicted to increase by 13.1% and 40.9%, respectively.

The incidence and mortality of breast cancer continue to increase in China. There are no signs that this trend will stop by 2030, particularly in rural areas. Effective breast cancer prevention strategies are therefore urgently needed in China.

In this post-hoc analysis, we evaluated anlotinib treatment-induced hypertension as a potential predictive factor of efficacy in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients.

A total of 109 patients enrolled in the anlotinib group in a phase 2 trial were included. The tumor response was assessed by computed tomography at week 3, week 6, and then every 6 weeks until progressive disease was observed. The primary endpoint of the study was progression free survival (PFS). The secondary endpoints included overall survival (OS) and objective response rate (ORR).

In all patients, the median PFS was 3.02 months [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.63–3.65 months] and the OS was 6.11 months (95% CI: 4.40–7.79 months). The ORR was 7.34% (95% CI: 3.22%–13.95%). A total of 59 (54%) patients were diagnosed with treatment-induced hypertension (Group A), and the remaining patients (n = 50, 46%) were in Group B. Baseline prognostic factors were similar between the 2 groups. Patients in Group A had a longer PFS and OS and higher ORR. When stratifying patients using a previously known history of hypertension, treatment-induced hypertension was a predictor only for patients without previous hypertension, who had longer PFS [hazard ratio (HR): 0.40, 95% CI: 0.24–0.68] and OS (HR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.21–0.67).

We showed, for the first time, a correlation between treatment-induced hypertension and better prognoses in recurrent or metastatic ESCC patients treated with anlotinib, without a previously known history of hypertension. Treatment-induced hypertension may be a simple and low cost predictor for anlotinib antitumor efficacy in these patients, which may also reflect the intended target inhibition.