China’s agriculture faces dual risks from climate change and the transition to low-carbon agriculture, both of which pose substantial threats to food security and farmers' incomes. Understanding the trade-offs between these risks is essential to meeting climate goals and advancing sustainable agricultural development. This study establishes a comprehensive framework that integrates meta-analysis-derived parameters into the GTAP-E model to quantify the dual risks to China’s agriculture under the 1.5 and 2 ℃ scenarios. The results indicate that under the 2 ℃ scenario, weaker mitigation efforts lead to higher climate risks, with maize production, prices, consumption, and self-sufficiency changing by about 1.5 times as much as under the 1.5 ℃ case. Conversely, the 1.5 ℃ scenario, while more effective in reducing climate risks, incurs greater transition risks—livestock output declines and prices rise nearly twice as much as that in the 2 ℃ scenario. The findings suggest that achieving climate targets requires a balanced transition strategy that strengthens agricultural resilience and ensures food security.

In the 21^st century, global agriculture faces unprecedented challenges due to the complex interplay between climate change, crop dynamics, and economic factors. Frameworks that integrate climate, crops, and economics models have been instrumental in assessing these impacts. However, these frameworks have some limitations, such as neglecting critical value chain effects. This study aims to bridge this gap by introducing a unique climate-crop-value chain framework that considers the entire agricultural value chain, connecting climate science, agriculture science, and economics. By analyzing the agricultural value chain, this framework captures the interconnectedness and ripple effects of climate impacts beyond the affected crop. Improving modeling frameworks like this contributes to the ongoing dialogue on sustainable agricultural development, guiding future research and policy interventions to ensure global food security in a changing climate. Addressing gaps in understanding the economic consequences on the agricultural value chain is crucial for a more comprehensive and actionable approach to climate resilience in agriculture.