Biomarkers-based prediction of long-term risk of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is scarce. We aim to develop a risk score integrating clinical routine information (C) and plasma biomarkers (B) for predicting long-term risk of ACS patients.

We included 2729 ACS patients from the OCEA (Observation of cardiovascular events in ACS patients). The earlier admitted 1910 patients were enrolled as development cohort; and the subsequently admitted 819 subjects were treated as validation cohort. We investigated 10-year risk of cardiovascular (CV) death, myocardial infarction (MI) and all cause death in these patients. Potential variables contributing to risk of clinical events were assessed using Cox regression models and a score was derived using main part of these variables.

During 16,110 person-years of follow-up, there were 238 CV death/MI in the development cohort. The 7 most important predictors including in the final model were NT-proBNP, D-dimer, GDF-15, peripheral artery disease (PAD), Fibrinogen, ST-segment elevated MI (STEMI), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), termed as CB-ACS score. C-index of the score for predication of cardiovascular events was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76−0.82) in development cohort and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76−0.78) in the validation cohort (5832 person-years of follow-up), which outperformed GRACE 2.0 and ABC-ACS risk score. The CB-ACS score was also well calibrated in development and validation cohort (Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino: P = 0.70 and P = 0.07, respectively).

CB-ACS risk score provides a useful tool for long-term prediction of CV events in patients with ACS. This model outperforms GRACE 2.0 and ABC-ACS ischemic risk score.

Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) has been explored as a potential biomarker for various inflammatory diseases and cardiovascular events. This study aimed to assess the predictive role of GDF-15 levels in cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality, considering traditional risk factors and other biomarkers.

A prospective study was conducted and 3699 patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) were enrolled into the research. Baseline GDF-15 levels were measured. Median follow-up was 3.1 years during the study. We analyzed clinical variables and several biomarkers. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate prognostic performance of GDF-15 levels in predicting myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure, stroke, cardiovascular death, and non-cardiovascular death.

Baseline GDF-15 levels for 3699 patients were grouped by quartile (≤ 1153, 1153–1888, 1888–3043, > 3043 ng/L). Higher GDF-15 levels were associated with older age, male gender, history of hypertension, and elevated levels of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro BNP), soluble suppression of tumorigenesis-2 (sST2), and creatine (each with P < 0.001). Adjusting for established risk factors and biomarkers in Cox proportional hazards models, a 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in GDF-15 was associated with elevated risk of clinical events [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): (1.52–3.11)], including: MI [HR = 2.83 95% CI: (1.03–7.74)], heart failure [HR = 2.71 95% CI: (1.18–6.23)], cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular death [HR = 2.48, 95% CI (1.49–4.11)] during the median follow up of 3.1 years.

Higher levels of GDF-15 consistently provides prognostic information for cardiovascular events and all cause death, independent of clinical risk factors and other biomarkers. GDF-15 could be considered as a valuable addition to future risk prediction model in secondary prevention for predicting clinical events in patient with stable CAD.