Water content and distribution have important impacts on gas production in water-bearing tight gas reservoirs. However, due to the structural and chemical heterogeneity of tight reservoirs, the water phase exists in various states, which has complicated the analyses of the effects of water characteristics on tight gas production performance. In this work, the water phase is distinguished from immobile to mobile states and the term of constrained water saturation is proposed. It is established that water can flow when the driving pressure difference is larger than the critical driving pressure difference. A new theoretical model of threshold pressure gradient is derived to incorporate the influences of constrained water saturation and permeability. On this basis, a new prediction model considering the varied threshold pressure gradient is obtained, and the result indicates that when threshold pressure gradient is constant, the real gas production capacity of the reservoir will be weakened. Meanwhile, a dynamic supply boundary model is presented, which indicates that the permeability has a strong influence on the dynamic supply boundary, whereas the impact of initial water saturation is negligible. These findings provide insights into the understanding of the effects of water state and saturation on the threshold pressure gradient and gas production rate in tight gas reservoirs. Furthermore, this study provides useful guidance on the prediction of field-scale gas production.