Measurement, driving factors, and carbon emission responsibility allocation of embodied carbon in China's petroleum product export trade

Against the backdrop of global climate governance and the transition toward low-carbon development, increasing attention has been paid to carbon emissions embodied in international trade in energy products. As a typical carbon-intensive commodity, oil products pose pressing challenges in terms of carbon accounting, driving mechanisms, and responsibility allocation along cross-regional trade flows. Based on input–output theory, this study quantitatively estimates the embodied carbon emissions associated with China’s oil product trade with its major trading partners and further examines their structural characteristics. Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is employed to identify the key drivers behind changes in embodied carbon emissions and to explore feasible approaches for allocating carbon emission responsibilities across regions. The results indicate that, first, China’s oil product exports are accompanied by a considerable scale of embodied carbon flows, with carbon emissions exhibiting a structurally increasing trend. Second, changes in embodied carbon emissions are jointly driven by export scale effects and structural effects, while technological effects partially offset the upward pressure on carbon emissions. Finally, the contribution of structural effects to embodied carbon growth has intensified in recent years, underscoring the importance of optimizing export product structures for the low-carbon transition of oil product trade. Based on these findings, this study proposes targeted policy implications. At the national level, efforts should focus on optimizing trade structures and promoting technological upgrading to accelerate the transformation of the domestic energy mix. At the international level, it is necessary to advance equitable responsibility sharing and cooperation, while enhancing data sharing and transparency in carbon emissions, thereby promoting harmonization and mutual recognition of standards in carbon data collection, accounting methodologies, and indicator systems across countries.