Measurement and Analysis of China's Employment Effects on Dual Circulation from the Perspective of Global Value Chains

Under the dual circulation new development pattern, from the perspective of the global value chain, studying the intrinsic logical relationship between domestic and international circulation and domestic and global value chains (GVCs) has significant academic value and practical significance. This study constructs a GVCs decomposition framework based on the Multi-regional Input-output (MRIO) model, by using the relevant data from the OECD database to analyze China's employment effects of dual circulation across multiple dimensions from 2000 to 2020. The study finds that: (1) China's employment has basically formed a development pattern of “mainly domestic circulation, international circulation empowerment”. Economic scale expansion is the main factor driving China's employment growth, while declining employment intensity serves as the primary factor. (2) Within domestic circulation, household consumption and fixed capital formation are important engines driving domestic circulation employment, the contribution of them over 80%. Employment driven by domestic circulation has shifted markedly from primary industries to manufacturing and services, accompanied by continuous improvements in employment quality. (3) In international circulation, the United States and Japan are the countries that driving the most embodied employment in China, though their influence is diminishing, while developing countries are continues to rise. Employment linked to international circulation is primarily driven by single GVC and simple GVC, embodied employment growth driven by complex GVC has shown significant growth in recent years, and China's position in participating in GVCs has been greatly improved. The research results of this article expand the research perspective of dual circulation measurement analysis, which can provide quantitative basis and decision-making reference for constructing a new development pattern of dual circulation, and have important implications for how China can achieve more comprehensive and higher quality employment.