A Study on the Pattern and Measurement of Chinese Industries Participation in Domestic and International Circulation

The paper takes the ripple effects triggered by ultimate demand as the starting point, divides the economic cycle into four patterns, and defines various cycles. Based on the definitions of these cycles, drawing on the input-output skyline model, it calculates the relative scale of the four economic cycle patterns and visually represents the cyclical state of industries. This paper further divides the “international cycle” into “domestic-international dual cycles” and “international-domestic dual cycles”, as well as calculates the scale of the “domestic large cycle”, which enriches the calculation's content and provides more detailed analytical data for the study of the “new development paradigm”. By calculating the economic cycles induced by final demand, it comprehensively reflects the state of economic cycles. By measurement, it was found that: First, most industries in China are centered around the domestic large cycle, with autonomous and controllable industrial chains. Second, energy resources are constrained by foreign supply chains, resulting in high vulnerability of the industrial chain. Third, some high-tech industries, due to their deep integration into the global industrial chain, rely on both foreign supply chains and foreign market demand, leading to a stranglehold in certain industries. Fourth, some textile industries heavily depend on foreign markets, although this dependence is diminishing. To establish the “dual-cycle new development paradigm”, China must safeguard the security of supply chains and industrial chains, enhance industrial self-sufficiency, and achieve national economic security and development.