Trends in Teleworking and Population Spatial Restructuring Based on Residents’ Intentions: A Case Study of Shanghai

This study examines the patterns of population spatial restructuring emerging from the long-term implementation of teleworking by employing questionnaire data from 822 respondents in Shanghai to construct a teleworking intention model and a residential relocation intention model. The results show that job characteristics are the dominant factors shaping individuals’ work mode choices. Residential locations with higher facility levels, better park accessibility, and lower population density are generally preferred, as are those offering convenient commuting conditions for both respondents and their spouses. Moreover, as the work mode increasingly approaches full-time teleworking, the likelihood of relocating outside the city rises. Based on simulations of individual work mode choices and household relocation decisions using synthetic population data, this study reveals a potential teleworking share of 71.6%. Teleworking-induced relocation is projected to involve approximately 12% of all households in Shanghai, with about 5% relocating outside the city. The resulting patterns of population spatial restructuring can be characterized as “broad dispersion, localized concentration, and a younger population in inflow areas.” Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces constitute the main destinations for intercity relocation, while net population inflow within Shanghai is concentrated in a limited number of central subareas with high-level facilities and in selected outer suburban subareas with high-quality ecology.