Markov probabilistic decision making of self-driving cars in highway with random traffic flow: a simulation study

Decision-making is one of the key technologies for self-driving cars. The high dependency of previously existing methods on human driving data or rules makes it difficult to model policies for different driving situations.

In this research, a probabilistic decision-making method based on the Markov decision process (MDP) is proposed to deduce the optimal maneuver automatically in a two-lane highway scenario without using any human data. The decision-making issues in a traffic environment are formulated as the MDP by defining basic elements including states, actions and basic models. Transition and reward models are defined by using a complete prediction model of the surrounding cars. An optimal policy was deduced using a dynamic programing method and evaluated under a two-dimensional simulation environment.

Results show that, at the given scenario, the self-driving car maintained safety and efficiency with the proposed policy.

This paper presents a framework used to derive a driving policy for self-driving cars without relying on any human driving data or rules modeled by hand.