Improving pear fruit quality without yield loss through 3D point cloud-based estimation of reasonable fruit load

Fruit quality is a critical determinant of economic returns in pear production, and maintaining an appropriate fruit load (FL) is essential for achieving high yield and quality. As a direct indicator of canopy photosynthetic capacity and assimilate supply, leaf number constitutes the key biological basis of reasonable FL determination under the leaf-to-fruit ratio concept. However, accurate and efficient estimation of leaf number in mature pear trees remains technically challenging, limiting its practical use in precision FL regulation. Here, we propose a data-driven framework for leaf number and reasonable FL estimation by integrating 3D point cloud-derived canopy structure with machine learning. A pipeline for extracting 3D architectural traits was developed and implemented in the software tool FTPCT, enabling rapid and standardized trait acquisition. Through correlation analysis, multicollinearity diagnosis, and variance inflation factor screening, five key traits strongly associated with leaf number were identified and incorporated into five machine learning models optimized using Bayesian optimization. Among them, the optimized random forest regression model achieved the highest and most stable performance, with R² of 0.85, RMSE of 239.74, and MAE of 149.26 for test dataset. SHAP analysis identified tree crown volume as the dominant contributor to leaf number estimation. Field validation demonstrated that FL regulation guided by the proposed framework significantly improved fruit weight and size without reducing yield compared with conventional practices. Notably, the proposed approach avoids explicit leaf-level reconstruction and relies on less canopy-scale traits, substantially reducing data requirements and computational cost, and thereby offering strong potential for rapid, field-deployable FL regulation in large-scale orchards.