Multi-hazard climate risks and resilience planning for urban commercial buildings: Spotlight on building services systems

This research aims to analyse and probabilistically measure the climate-related multi-hazard risks linked to the building energy system, water system, and building envelope of an urban commercial building in Sydney, Australia. Additionally, it examines how these risks amplify and interact when evaluated collectively. The study employs extreme value analysis to translate the intensity of multiple climate hazards into probabilities of occurrence. A Bayesian Network (BN) is used for probabilistic inference, with building energy modelling and geospatial analysis providing additional data for the BN conceptual model. In terms of impact on building systems of the reference building, cooling demand could increase by 19%, and heating demand by around 3%. The probability of surviving power outages may decrease by up to 10%, and water demand is expected to rise by up to 5%. The risk scores for these systems vary: energy systems face medium to high risk, water systems lean towards high risk due to increased demand and reduced rainwater collection, and the building envelope has a low to medium risk. Adaptation pathways can help mitigate these risks. The “Building Energy Transition” pathway can reduce the energy system’s risk by up to 17%. The “Water Sensitive Urban Design” pathway can lower the water system’s risk by 18%. The “Building Structural Integrity” pathway can decrease the building envelope’s risk by up to 16%. The study highlights the need for improved analytical tools and frameworks, emphasising the importance of expanding BN concepts and cross-validating climate data across climate model ensembles to enhance scientific rigour.