Association between the infection probability of COVID-19 and ventilation rates: An update for SARS-CoV-2 variants

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the cause of the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, is evolving. Thus, the risk of airborne transmission in confined spaces may be higher, and corresponding precautions should be re-appraised. Here, we obtained the quantum generation rate (q) value of three SARS-CoV-2 variants (Alpha, Delta, and Omicron) for the Wells-Riley equation with a reproductive number-based fitted approach and estimated the association between the infection probability and ventilation rates. The q value was 89–165 h⁻¹ for Alpha variant, 312–935 h⁻¹ for Delta variant, and 725–2,345 h⁻¹ for Omicron variant. The ventilation rates increased to ensure an infection probability of less than 1%, and were 8,000–14,000 m³ h⁻¹, 26,000–80,000 m³ h⁻¹, and 64,000–250,000 m³ h⁻¹ per infector for the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants, respectively. If the infector and susceptible person wore N95 masks, the required ventilation rates decreased to about 1/100 of the values required without masks, which can be achieved in most typical scenarios. An air purifier was ineffective for reducing transmission when used in scenarios without masks. Preventing prolonged exposure time in confined spaces remains critical in reducing the risk of airborne transmission for highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants.