Journal Home > Volume 15 , Issue 11
Building Simulation 2022, 15(11): 1899-1921 https://doi.org/10.1007/s12273-022-0912-1
Research Article | Issue | Published: 28 June 2022

Challenges and opportunities for carbon neutrality in China's building sector—Modelling and data

Show Author's Information Shan Hu,  Yang Zhang,  Ziyi Yang,  Da Yan( ),  Yi Jiang
Building Energy Research Center, School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Keywords:
climate change, building sector, carbon neutrality, global comparison, China building energy and emission
Cite this article:
Hu S, Zhang Y, Yang Z, et al. Challenges and opportunities for carbon neutrality in China's building sector—Modelling and data. Building Simulation, 2022, 15(11): 1899-1921. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12273-022-0912-1
Download citation
EndNote(RIS)
BibTeX

776

Views

85

Downloads

Citations

90

Crossref

81

WoS

87

Scopus

7

CSCD

Abstract Full text About this article

The building sector is one of the largest energy user and carbon emitter globally. To achieve China's national carbon target, the building sector in China needs to achieve carbon peaking and neutrality targets by 2030 and 2060, respectively. However, data deficiency on building energy and emissions become barriers for tracking the status of building energy and emissions, and identify potential opportunities for achieving dual carbon targets. To address these shortcomings, this study established an integrated China Building Energy and Emission Model (CBEEM). With CBEEM, this study evaluated the building-construction and building-operation energy and emissions in China, and revealed the status quo and potential challenge and opportunities. According to modelling results, building operation energy use of China was 1.06 billion tce in 2020, accounting for 21% of China's total primary energy consumption. Building construction energy consumption was 0.52 billion tce in 2020, accounting for another 10% of total primary energy consumption. Key messages found on building carbon emissions are: building construction embodied emissions were 1.5 billion tCO2 in 2020 and are declining slowly, building operational carbon emissions were 2.2 billion tCO2 in 2020 and are still increasing. International comparisons between China and other countries on building stock, energy use intensity and carbon emission intensity were conducted as well, and help shed a light on the challenges for decarbonization of China's building sector. Finally, technology perspectives to achieve carbon neutrality target were discussed and related policy suggestions were provided.


menu
Abstract
Full text
Outline
About this article

Challenges and opportunities for carbon neutrality in China's building sector—Modelling and data

Show Author's information Shan Hu, Yang Zhang, Ziyi Yang, Da Yan( ), Yi Jiang
Building Energy Research Center, School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Abstract

The building sector is one of the largest energy user and carbon emitter globally. To achieve China's national carbon target, the building sector in China needs to achieve carbon peaking and neutrality targets by 2030 and 2060, respectively. However, data deficiency on building energy and emissions become barriers for tracking the status of building energy and emissions, and identify potential opportunities for achieving dual carbon targets. To address these shortcomings, this study established an integrated China Building Energy and Emission Model (CBEEM). With CBEEM, this study evaluated the building-construction and building-operation energy and emissions in China, and revealed the status quo and potential challenge and opportunities. According to modelling results, building operation energy use of China was 1.06 billion tce in 2020, accounting for 21% of China's total primary energy consumption. Building construction energy consumption was 0.52 billion tce in 2020, accounting for another 10% of total primary energy consumption. Key messages found on building carbon emissions are: building construction embodied emissions were 1.5 billion tCO2 in 2020 and are declining slowly, building operational carbon emissions were 2.2 billion tCO2 in 2020 and are still increasing. International comparisons between China and other countries on building stock, energy use intensity and carbon emission intensity were conducted as well, and help shed a light on the challenges for decarbonization of China's building sector. Finally, technology perspectives to achieve carbon neutrality target were discussed and related policy suggestions were provided.

Keywords: climate change, building sector, carbon neutrality, global comparison, China building energy and emission

References(106)

An J, Yan D, Deng G, et al. (2016). Survey and performance analysis of centralized domestic hot water system in China. Energy and Buildings, 133: 321–334.
DOI Google Scholar

An J, Yan D, Hong T (2018). Clustering and statistical analyses of air-conditioning intensity and use patterns in residential buildings. Energy and Buildings, 174: 214–227.
DOI Google Scholar
Anandarajah G, Ekins P, Strachan N (2012). Pathways to a low carbon economy. Energy 2050 Mak Transit to a Secur Low Carbon Energy Syst 105–144. Available at https://doi.org/10.4324/9781849775311
DOI

Ayagapin L, Praene JP, Jaggeshar D, et al. (2021). Prospective life cycle assessment: Effect of electricity decarbonization in building sector. Energies, 14: 3184.
DOI Google Scholar

BERC (2007). Annual Report on China Building Energy Efficiency. Building Energy Research Center of Tsinghua University. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press. (in Chinese)

BERC (2016). China Building Energy Use 2016. Building Energy Research Center of Tsinghua University. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press. (in Chinese)

BERC (2017). China Building Energy Use 2017. Building Energy Research Center of Tsinghua University. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press. (in Chinese)

BERC (2020). 2020 Annual Report on China Building Energy Efficiency. Building Energy Research Center of Tsinghua University. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press. (in Chinese)
Bierwirth A, Thomas S (2019). Energy sufficiency in buildings Concept paper. Available at https://www.energysufficiency.org/libraryresources/library/items/energy-sufficiency-in-buildings-concept-paper/

CEC (2018). Annual Report of China's Power Industry. Beijing: China Electricity Council. (in Chinese)

CEC (2020). National Power Industry Statistics 2020. China Electricity Council. Beijing: China Statistics Press. (in Chinese)

Chen M, Yang X (2015). Situations and challenges of household energy consumption in Chinese small towns. Energy and Buildings, 107: 155–162.
DOI Google Scholar
China Architecture Design and Research Institute (2014). Policy Research on Construction Waste Recycling and Reutilization. (in Chinese)

Deng J, Wei Q, Liang M, et al. (2019). Does heat pumps perform energy efficiently as we expected: Field tests and evaluations on various kinds of heat pump systems for space heating. Energy and Buildings, 182: 172–186.
DOI Google Scholar

Deng J, He S, Wei Q, et al. (2020). Field test and optimization of heat pumps and water distribution systems in medium-depth geothermal heat pump systems. Energy and Buildings, 209: 109724.
DOI Google Scholar

Du J, Yu C, Pan W (2020). Multiple influencing factors analysis of household energy consumption in high-rise residential buildings: Evidence from Hong Kong. Building Simulation, 13: 753–769.
DOI Google Scholar

Fang H, Xia J, Jiang Y (2015). Key issues and solutions in a district heating system using low-grade industrial waste heat. Energy, 86: 589–602.
DOI Google Scholar

Feng X, Yan D, Wang C, Sun H (2016). A preliminary research on the derivation of typical occupant behavior based on large-scale questionnaire surveys. Energy and Buildings, 117: 332–340.
DOI Google Scholar

Feng X, Yan D, Yu R, et al. (2017). Investigation and modelling of the centralized solar domestic hot water system in residential buildings. Building Simulation, 10: 87–96.
DOI Google Scholar

Fu L, Li Y, Wu Y, et al. (2021). Low carbon district heating in China in 2025—A district heating mode with low grade waste heat as heat source. Energy, 230: 120765.
DOI Google Scholar

Gambhir A, Napp TA, Emmott CJM, et al. (2014). India's CO2 emissions pathways to 2050: Energy system, economic and fossil fuel impacts with and without carbon permit trading. Energy, 77: 791–801.
DOI Google Scholar
Global CCS (2021). Global Status of CCS 2021. Available at https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/resources/global-status-report/
Gu L (2009). Studies on the environmental impact of the building industry in China based on the life cycle assessment. PhD Thesis, Tsinghua University, China. (in Chinese)
Gui C, Yan D, Guo S, et al. (2020). Development of prototype building model in Beijing based on actual energy consumption. In: Proceedings of 11th International Symposium on Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (ISHVAC 2019), Harbin, China.
DOI

Guo S, Yan D, Peng C, et al. (2015). Investigation and analyses of residential heating in the HSCW climate zone of China: Status quo and key features. Building and Environment, 94: 532–542.
DOI Google Scholar

Guo S, Yan D, Hu S, et al. (2020). Global comparison of building energy use data within the context of climate change. Energy and Buildings, 226: 110362.
DOI Google Scholar

Guo S, Yan D, Hu S, et al. (2021). Modelling building energy consumption in China under different future scenarios. Energy, 214: 119063.
DOI Google Scholar

Hong T, Taylor-Lange SC, D'Oca S, et al. (2016). Advances in research and applications of energy-related occupant behavior in buildings. Energy and Buildings, 116: 694–702.
DOI Google Scholar
Hopkins A, Takahashi K, Glick D, et al. (2018). Decarbonization of Heating Energy Use in California Buildings. Synapse Energy Economics.

Hu S, Yan D, Cui Y, et al. (2016). Urban residential heating in hot summer and cold winter zones of China—Status, modeling, and scenarios to 2030. Energy Policy, 92: 158–170.
DOI Google Scholar

Hu S, Yan D, Guo S, et al. (2017). A survey on energy consumption and energy usage behavior of households and residential building in urban China. Energy and Buildings, 148: 366–378.
DOI Google Scholar
Hu S, Guo S (2019). Going beyond policies focused on building energy efficiency technologies—Evidences and lessons from China. ECEEE 2019 Summer Study, pp. 293–302.

Hu S, Yan D, Qian M (2019). Using bottom-up model to analyze cooling energy consumption in China's urban residential building. Energy and Buildings, 202: 109352.
DOI Google Scholar

Hu S, Cabeza LF, Yan D (2020a). Review and estimation of global halocarbon emissions in the buildings sector. Energy and Buildings, 225: 110311.
DOI Google Scholar

Hu S, Yan D, Azar E, et al. (2020b). A systematic review of occupant behavior in building energy policy. Building and Environment, 175: 106807.
DOI Google Scholar

Hu S, Yan D, Dong B, et al. (2020c). Exploring key factors impacting cooling usage patterns of Chinese urban household based on a large-scale questionnaire survey. Energy and Buildings, 214: 109885.
DOI Google Scholar
Hu S, Jiang Y, Yan D (2022). China building energy use and carbon emission yearbook 2021: A Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality by 2060. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 2022.
DOI

Huo T, Li X, Cai W, et al. (2020). Exploring the impact of urbanization on urban building carbon emissions in China: Evidence from a provincial panel data model. Sustainable Cities and Society, 56: 102068.
DOI Google Scholar

Hutber FW (1984). Energy statistics and the planning perspective. The Statistician, 33: 1.
DOI Google Scholar
IEA (2015). Building Energy Use in China: Transforming Construction and Influencing Consumption to 2050. International Energy Agency, Building Energy Research Center of Tsinghua University.
IEA (2019a). Statistics database. International Energy Agency. Available at http://www.iea.org/statistics/
IEA (2019b). CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 2019. International Energy Agency.
IEA (2019c). Perspectives for clean energy transition. The critical role of buildings. International Energy Agency.
IEA (2021). E4 Country Profile: Energy Efficiency in China. International Energy Agency. Available at https://www.iea.org/articles/e4-country-profile-energy-efficiency-in-china.

IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
IPCC (2022). WG III Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report List of Corrigenda to Be Implemented CHAPTER 12. 2050. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Kavgic M, Mavrogianni A, Mumovic D, et al. (2010). A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector. Building and Environment, 45: 1683–1697.
DOI Google Scholar

Kumar S, Yadav N, Singh M, et al. (2019). Estimating India's commercial building stock to address the energy data challenge. Building Research and Information, 47: 24–37.
DOI Google Scholar

Langevin J, Harris CB, Reyna JL (2019). Assessing the potential to reduce US building CO2 emissions 80% by 2050. Joule, 3: 2403–2424.
DOI Google Scholar
Lawson B (1996). Building materials energy and the environment: Towards ecologically sustainable development. Royal Australian Institute of Architects.

Leibowicz BD, Lanham CM, Brozynski MT, et al. (2018). Optimal decarbonization pathways for urban residential building energy services. Applied Energy, 230: 1311–1325.
DOI Google Scholar

Li Q, Sun X, Chen C, et al. (2012). Characterizing the household energy consumption in heritage Nanjing Tulou buildings, China: A comparative field survey study. Energy and Buildings, 49: 317–326.
DOI Google Scholar

Li Q, You R, Chen C, et al. (2013). A field investigation and comparative study of indoor environmental quality in heritage Chinese rural buildings with thick rammed earth wall. Energy and Buildings, 62: 286–293.
DOI Google Scholar

Li Y, Xia J, Fang H, et al. (2016). Case study on industrial surplus heat of steel plants for district heating in Northern China. Energy, 102: 397–405.
DOI Google Scholar

Li Y, Xia J, Su Y, et al. (2018). Systematic optimization for the utilization of low-temperature industrial excess heat for district heating. Energy, 144: 984–991.
DOI Google Scholar

Li Z, Lin B, Zheng S, et al. (2020). A review of operational energy consumption calculation method for urban buildings. Building Simulation, 13: 739–751.
DOI Google Scholar
Liu H, Qian M, Yan D (2020). Analysis of large scale air conditioner user behaviour in china based on data mining method. In: Proceedings of the 16th International IBPSA Building Simulation Conference, Rome, Italy.

Liu Y, Tian W, Zhou X (2021). Energy and carbon performance of urban buildings using metamodeling variable importance techniques. Building Simulation, 14: 535–547.
DOI Google Scholar
Lucon O, Ürge-Vorsatz D, Ahmed AZ, et al. (2014). Buildings. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Luo Q, Chen X, Wang Y, et al. (2009). Investigation on waste disposal of several typical construction projects. China Resources Comprehensive Utilization, 27(06): 29–31. (in Chinese)
Google Scholar

Luo A, Fang H, Xia J, et al. (2017). Mapping potentials of low-grade industrial waste heat in Northern China. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 125: 335–348.
DOI Google Scholar

MHURD (2016). Standard for Energy Consumption of Building GB/T 51161-2016. Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of China. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press. (in Chinese)

NBS (2008). China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2008. National Bureau of Statistics of China. Beijing: China Statistics Press. (in Chinese)

NBS (2019a). China Statistical Yearbook 2019. National Bureau of Statistics of China. Beijing: China Statistics Press. (in Chinese)

NBS (2019b). China Energy Statistical Yearbook. National Bureau of Statistics of China. Beijing: China Statistics Press. (in Chinese)

NBS (2021). China Statistical Yearbook of Construction. National Bureau of Statistics of China. Beijing: China Statistics Press. (in Chinese)
NDRC (2014). Annual Report of Comprehensive Utilization of Resources in China. National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). (in Chinese)
NSO (2018). Key Indicators of Drinking Water, Sanitation, Hygiene and Housing Condition in India. New Delhi: National Statistical Office (NSO).
Peng B (2012). Case study on life cycle energy consumption and CO2 emissions of green buildings. Master Thesis, Tsinghua University, China. (in Chinese)

Peng C, Yan D, Guo S, et al. (2015). Building energy use in China: Ceiling and scenario. Energy and Buildings, 102: 307–316.
DOI Google Scholar

Qian M, Yan D, Liu H, et al. (2020). Power consumption and energy efficiency of VRF system based on large scale monitoring virtual sensors. Building Simulation, 13: 1145–1156.
DOI Google Scholar

Qian M, Yan D, Hong T, et al. (2021). Operation and performance of VRF systems: Mining a large-scale dataset. Energy and Buildings, 230: 110519.
DOI Google Scholar

Shan M, Wang P, Li J, et al. (2015). Energy and environment in Chinese rural buildings: Situations, challenges, and intervention strategies. Building and Environment, 91: 271–282.
DOI Google Scholar
Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Management Committee, Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission (2015). Report on monitoring and analysis in government office building and large public buildings of Shanghai in 2015. (in Chinese)
Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Management Committee, Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission (2016). Report on monitoring and analysis in government office building and large public buildings of Shanghai in 2016. (in Chinese)
Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Management Committee, Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission (2017). Report on monitoring and analysis in government office building and large public buildings of Shanghai in 2017. (in Chinese)
Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Management Committee, Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission (2019). Report on monitoring and analysis in government office building and large public buildings of Shanghai in 2019. (in Chinese)
Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Management Committee, Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission (2020). Report on monitoring and analysis in government office building and large public buildings of Shanghai in 2020. (in Chinese)
Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau (2017). Report on the monitoring of energy consumption in large public buildings in Shenzhen in 2017. Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau, Shenzhen Construction Technology Promotion Center, Shenzhen Research Institute of Building Science Co. (in Chinese)
Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau (2020). Report on the monitoring of energy consumption in large public buildings in Shenzhen in 2020. Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau, Shenzhen Construction Technology Promotion Center, Shenzhen Research Institute of Building Science Co. (in Chinese)

Swan LG, Ugursal VI (2009). Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13: 1819–1835.
DOI Google Scholar

Tang R, Wang S, Sun S (2021). Impacts of technology-guided occupant behavior on air-conditioning system control and building energy use. Building Simulation, 14: 209–217.
DOI Google Scholar

Tian W, Zhu C, Sun Y, et al. (2021). Energy characteristics of urban buildings: Assessment by machine learning. Building Simulation, 14: 179–193.
DOI Google Scholar
Tsinghua China Data Center (2021). Sample survey data of 1% population in 2015. Available at http://www.tcdc.sem.tsinghua.edu.cn/article/sjzy/zylw/202110/20211000000370.shtml
United Nations Environment Programme (2009). Buildings and Climate Change: Status, challenges and opportunities.
United Nations Environment Programme (2020). 2020 Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction—Towards a zero-emissions, efficient and resilient buildings and construction sector. Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction.
United Nations Statistical Division (2015). International Recommendations for Energy Statistics.

Wang Q (2007). Research on statistics and calculation of building energy consumption in China. Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection, 2007(8): 9–10. (in Chinese)
Google Scholar
Wang Q (2020). Energy Data 2020. Beijing: innovative Green Development Program (iGDP). (in Chinese)
World Bank (2019). Statistics Database. Available at http://data.worldbank.org/

Xiao H, Wei Q, Jiang Y (2012). The reality and statistical distribution of energy consumption in office buildings in China. Energy and Buildings, 50: 259–265.
DOI Google Scholar

Xue Q, Wang Z, Chen Q (2022). Multi-objective optimization of building design for life cycle cost and CO2 emissions: A case study of a low-energy residential building in a severe cold climate. Building Simulation, 15: 83–98.
DOI Google Scholar

Yan D, Xia J, Tang W, et al. (2008). DeST—An integrated building simulation toolkit Part I: Fundamentals. Building Simulation, 1: 95–110.
DOI Google Scholar

Yan D, Hong T, Li C, et al. (2017). A thorough assessment of China's standard for energy consumption of buildings. Energy and Buildings, 143: 114–128.
DOI Google Scholar

Yan D, Zhou X, An J, et al. (2022). DeST 3.0: A new-generation building performance simulation platform. Building Simulation, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12273-022-0909-9.
DOI Google Scholar

Yang X, Jiang Y, Yang M, et al. (2010). Energy and environment in Chinese rural housing: Current status and future perspective. Frontiers of Energy and Power Engineering in China, 4: 35–46.
DOI Google Scholar

Yi L, He X (2015). Embodied environmental impact assessments of urban residential buildings in China based on life cycle analyses. Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology), 15(1): 74–79. (in Chinese)
Google Scholar

Zhang S, Yang X, Jiang Y, et al. (2010). Comparative analysis of energy use in China building sector: Current status, existing problems and solutions. Frontiers of Energy and Power Engineering in China, 4: 2–21.
DOI Google Scholar

Zhang L, Xia J, Thorsen JE, et al. (2017). Method for achieving hydraulic balance in typical Chinese building heating systems by managing differential pressure and flow. Building Simulation, 10: 51–63.
DOI Google Scholar

Zhang Y, Yan D, Hu S, Guo S (2019). Modelling of energy consumption and carbon emission from the building construction sector in China, a process-based LCA approach. Energy Policy, 134: 110949.
DOI Google Scholar

Zhang Y, Xia J, Fang H, et al. (2020). Field tests on the operational energy consumption of Chinese district heating systems and evaluation of typical associated problems. Energy and Buildings, 224: 110269.
DOI Google Scholar

Zhang Y, Hu S, Yan D, et al. (2021). Exploring cooling pattern of low-income households in urban China based on a large-scale questionnaire survey: A case study in Beijing. Energy and Buildings, 236: 110783.
DOI Google Scholar

Zhang Y, Hu S, Guo F, et al. (2022a). Assessing the potential of decarbonizing China's building construction by 2060 and synergy with industry sector. Journal of Cleaner Production, 359: 132086.
DOI Google Scholar

Zhang Y, Zheng W, Fang H, Xia J (2022b). Clean heating in Northern China: Regional investigations and roadmap studies for urban area towards 2050. Journal of Cleaner Production, 334: 130233.
DOI Google Scholar

Zhou N, Khanna N, Feng W, et al. (2018). Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050. Nature Energy, 3: 978–984.
DOI Google Scholar

Zhou X, Tian S, An J, et al. (2022). Modeling occupant behavior's influence on the energy efficiency of solar domestic hot water systems. Applied Energy, 309: 118503.
DOI Google Scholar
Publication history
Copyright
Acknowledgements

Publication history

Received: 25 March 2022
Revised: 15 May 2022
Accepted: 02 June 2022
Published: 28 June 2022
Issue date: November 2022

Copyright

© Tsinghua University Press 2022

Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the Youth Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51908311), Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 8222019), Huaneng Group Science and Technology Research Project (HNKJ20-H50) and Tsinghua-Foshan Innovation Special Fund (TFISF, No. 2021THFS0201).

Return