Challenges and opportunities for carbon neutrality in China's building sector—Modelling and data

The building sector is one of the largest energy user and carbon emitter globally. To achieve China's national carbon target, the building sector in China needs to achieve carbon peaking and neutrality targets by 2030 and 2060, respectively. However, data deficiency on building energy and emissions become barriers for tracking the status of building energy and emissions, and identify potential opportunities for achieving dual carbon targets. To address these shortcomings, this study established an integrated China Building Energy and Emission Model (CBEEM). With CBEEM, this study evaluated the building-construction and building-operation energy and emissions in China, and revealed the status quo and potential challenge and opportunities. According to modelling results, building operation energy use of China was 1.06 billion tce in 2020, accounting for 21% of China's total primary energy consumption. Building construction energy consumption was 0.52 billion tce in 2020, accounting for another 10% of total primary energy consumption. Key messages found on building carbon emissions are: building construction embodied emissions were 1.5 billion tCO₂ in 2020 and are declining slowly, building operational carbon emissions were 2.2 billion tCO₂ in 2020 and are still increasing. International comparisons between China and other countries on building stock, energy use intensity and carbon emission intensity were conducted as well, and help shed a light on the challenges for decarbonization of China's building sector. Finally, technology perspectives to achieve carbon neutrality target were discussed and related policy suggestions were provided.