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Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can effectively deal with the problems of energy consumption and occupancy prediction, fault detection and diagnosis, reliability analysis, and optimization in energy systems. Compared with the black-box models, PGMs show advantages in model interpretability, scalability and reliability. They have great potential to realize the true artificial intelligence in energy systems of the next generation. This paper intends to provide a comprehensive review of the PGM-based approaches published in the last decades. It reveals the advantages, limitations and potential future research directions of the PGM-based approaches for energy systems. Two types of PGMs are summarized in this review, including static models (SPGMs) and dynamic models (DPGMs). SPGMs can conduct probabilistic inference based on incomplete, uncertain or even conflicting information. SPGM-based approaches are proposed to deal with various management tasks in energy systems. They show outstanding performance in fault detection and diagnosis of energy systems. DPGMs can represent a dynamic and stochastic process by describing how its state changes with time. DPGM-based approaches have high accuracy in predicting the energy consumption, occupancy and failures of energy systems. In the future, a unified framework is suggested to fuse the knowledge-driven and data-driven PGMs for achieving better performances. Universal PGM-based approaches are needed that can be adapted to various energy systems. Hybrid algorithms would outperform the basic PGMs by integrating advanced techniques such as deep learning and first-order logic.


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Probabilistic graphical models in energy systems: A review

Show Author's information Tingting Li1Yang Zhao1( )Ke Yan2Kai Zhou3Chaobo Zhang1Xuejun Zhang1
Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
Department of Building, School of Design and Environment, National University of Singapore, 4 Architecture Drive, Singapore
Zhejiang Energy Gas Group Co., Ltd, Hangzhou, China

Abstract

Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can effectively deal with the problems of energy consumption and occupancy prediction, fault detection and diagnosis, reliability analysis, and optimization in energy systems. Compared with the black-box models, PGMs show advantages in model interpretability, scalability and reliability. They have great potential to realize the true artificial intelligence in energy systems of the next generation. This paper intends to provide a comprehensive review of the PGM-based approaches published in the last decades. It reveals the advantages, limitations and potential future research directions of the PGM-based approaches for energy systems. Two types of PGMs are summarized in this review, including static models (SPGMs) and dynamic models (DPGMs). SPGMs can conduct probabilistic inference based on incomplete, uncertain or even conflicting information. SPGM-based approaches are proposed to deal with various management tasks in energy systems. They show outstanding performance in fault detection and diagnosis of energy systems. DPGMs can represent a dynamic and stochastic process by describing how its state changes with time. DPGM-based approaches have high accuracy in predicting the energy consumption, occupancy and failures of energy systems. In the future, a unified framework is suggested to fuse the knowledge-driven and data-driven PGMs for achieving better performances. Universal PGM-based approaches are needed that can be adapted to various energy systems. Hybrid algorithms would outperform the basic PGMs by integrating advanced techniques such as deep learning and first-order logic.

Keywords: hidden Markov model, Markov chain, probabilistic graphical model, energy system, Bayesian network, dynamic Bayesian network

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Publication history
Copyright
Acknowledgements

Publication history

Received: 13 July 2021
Revised: 16 September 2021
Accepted: 24 September 2021
Published: 20 October 2021
Issue date: May 2022

Copyright

© Tsinghua University Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021

Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2018YFE0116300]; and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51978601).

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