The energy performance and passive survivability of high thermal insulation buildings in future climate scenarios

Given that the passive performance simulation of buildings based on typical meteorological year data and specific design schemes makes it challenging to respond to climate change and refine design requirements on time, this article established a passive performance prediction model for future buildings considering multi-dimensional variables including climate change, building design, and operational characteristics. For high thermal insulation buildings under future climates, the mild climate zone is more sensitive than the others, cooling energy demand is more sensitive than heating demand, apartments are more sensitive than office buildings, and passive survivability is more sensitive than energy performance; for buildings of the same type located in the same climate zone, thermal design solutions determine the increase rate of cooling demand. The potential benefits of climate warming on heating demand reduction are almost zero, but the cooling demand increases significantly, with apartments and office buildings increasing up to 22.1% and 5.0%, respectively. Buildings generally overheat in the future, and the increase rate of the mild zone far exceeds other zones with duration and severity being 3004.8% and 877.7% for apartments, and 884.3% and 288.9% for office buildings, respectively.