A dynamic evaluation method for mission safety of missile equipment based on hierarchical safety control structure

The multi-mission environment and complex working conditions of long-term storage put forward strict requirements on the effective risk suppression and accurate safety evaluation of missile equipment. However, missile equipment is a typical man-machine-environment coupling complex system. Traditional safety analysis and evaluation methods cannot meet the requirements of its dynamic change and accurate quantification. Therefore, this paper proposes a safety dynamic evaluation method for missile equipment based on hierarchical safety control structure model to realize accurate safety evaluation under the long-term storage mission situation. First, according to the mission profile characteristics of missile equipment, a multi-view architecture model of process, mission, function, information and organization is constructed to achieve the accurate description of mission process and resource. Then, a hierarchical safety control structure model is proposed to determine the accident causal factors and accident chain of the targeted mission. Meanwhile, based on the mission characteristics of missile equipment, a human performance evaluation system is constructed for long-term storage in a complex and changeable environment, achieving accurate evaluation of human error rate under the man-machine-environment coupling condition. Moreover, a safety dynamic feedback evaluation method integrating STAMP and CREAM is proposed to obtain the accident rate of the missile mission through simulation. Finally, a case study of the missile test mission is performed. The proposed method specifies 6 typical accident chains of 3 categories of coordination, control and feedback in the man-machine-environment coupling scenario. Meanwhile, the accuracy of the accident rate is improved by 70. 08%, which verifies the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.