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Original Article | Open Access

Quantum machine learning-driven surrogate modeling for efficient multi-objective optimization of CO2 storage and geothermal energy extraction

Hydrology Research Unit, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping 601 76, Sweden
Water Research Center, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat 123, Oman
Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat 123, Oman
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Abstract

CO2 plume geothermal systems offer a promising pathway for simultaneous carbon sequestration and renewable energy production, yet their optimization remains computationally prohibitive due to the complexity of coupled multi-phase flow, heat transport, and thermodynamic processes. This study presents a novel framework that integrates Non-isothermal Unsaturated-saturated Flow and Transport modeling with quantum neural network and hybrid quantum-classical ensemble regressors to accelerate CO2 plume geothermal system design optimization. The methodology employs latin hypercube sampling to generate 1,000 Non-isothermal Unsaturated-saturated Flow and Transport simulations across several parameter spaces, extracting statistical features that undergo rigorous selection through Boruta, Chi-squared, and Pearson correlation algorithms with a standardized weight threshold of higher than 0.75. Two quantum architectures were developed to predict six geothermal variables, including system lifetime, injected, extracted, stored CO2 mass, cumulative energy recovery and average heat extraction rate within lifetime. The quantum models achieved exceptional accuracy for most variables in the test section, with hybrid quantum-classical ensemble regressors architectures consistently outperforming quantum neural network variants, particularly when combined with boruta feature selection. Two optimization algorithms were employed for CO2 plume geothermal system design, including moth flame optimization for single objectives and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ for multi-objective scenarios to find robust optimal solutions based on developed surrogate models for injection overpressure, well spacing near and maximizing thermal energy extraction. The framework transformed a computationally intractable optimization requiring extensive simulation time into a rapid calculation while maintaining prediction accuracy comparable to full-physics models.

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Advances in Geo-Energy Research
Pages 137-152

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Cite this article:
Mohammadi B, Chen M, Nikoo MR, et al. Quantum machine learning-driven surrogate modeling for efficient multi-objective optimization of CO2 storage and geothermal energy extraction. Advances in Geo-Energy Research, 2025, 18(2): 137-152. https://doi.org/10.46690/ager.2025.11.04

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Received: 26 August 2025
Revised: 19 September 2025
Accepted: 08 October 2025
Published: 11 October 2025
© The Author(s) 2025.

This article is distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY-NC-ND) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.