Evaluation of the sustainable development capability of listed oil companies under the “Double Carbon” background: From both macro and micro perspectives

Under the “Double Carbon” strategy, the high-energy-consuming and high-emission petroleum industry faces urgent demands and pressures for green transformation. However, traditional evaluation models focusing on financial performance are ill-suited for current high-quality development requirements, and existing general ESG evaluation systems lack targeted characterization of petroleum industry traits. To address this issue, based on a macro-micro dual perspective, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system covering economic, environmental, social, and governance dimensions, specifically incorporating industry-characteristic indicators such as carbon emission intensity and low-carbon technology investment. Using the AHP-Entropy Weight-TOPSIS combined evaluation model, the sustainable development capability of 32 A-share listed petroleum enterprises from 2018 to 2023 is evaluated. The results indicate that: Macroscopically, constrained by cyclical fluctuations in international oil prices and initial green transformation costs, the industry’s overall sustainable development performance declined in 2019 and subsequently exhibited a fluctuating adjustment trend. Microscopically, while the average comprehensive performance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is generally superior to that of private enterprises, the gap demonstrates a significant convergence trend, with the score difference narrowing from 0.113 in 2018 to 0.002 in 2023. Further analysis reveals that this disparity primarily stems from SOEs’ institutional advantages in environmental compliance and social responsibility, whereas private enterprises have achieved rapid catch-up by improving governance efficiency and increasing social responsibility investment. This study reveals the differentiated evolutionary paths of petroleum enterprises under different ownership structures in the “Double Carbon” context, providing a quantitative basis for the government to improve industry regulatory policies, and offering scientific decision-making references for SOEs to consolidate their green benchmark status and for private enterprises to optimize ESG governance strategies.