A comprehensive review of the supply and demand structure of China's oil and gas

Under the constraints of the carbon peaking and neutrality goal, oil and gas production, supply, and consumption will be significantly impacted. The review yields the following key findings: 1) Demand for petrochemical oil is projected to experience rapid growth; however, it is unlikely to offset the decline in fuel oil consumption. Consequently, petroleum consumption is anticipated to reach its peak before the year 2030. 2) The consumption of natural gas is expected to exceed 600 billion m³/a; nevertheless, there exists a significant disparity in terms of the path of decline subsequent to reaching its peak. 3) Crude oil production has currently reached a plateau; meanwhile, natural gas production holds the potential to peak at over 300 billion m³/a and could potentially achieve a capacity of 400 billion m³/a. 4) In the long run, China will continue to heavily rely on substantial imports to bridge the oil and gas consumption gap. Based on the findings, China's oil and gas industry faces challenges, including difficulties in maintaining and increasing production levels, persistently high import risks, as well as the arduous task of transformation. Thus, we propose a series of recommendations: 1) A more robust policy support that emphasizes the utilization of reserves and a sustained promotion of domestic exploration and production. 2) Optimizing the industry's transformation trajectory to mitigate the potential risks associated with stranded assets. 3) Facilitating industrial upgrade and transformation to ensure the achievement of high-quality industry development.