Research into Chinese embodied energy trade and its impact on dual control of energy consumption under the perspective of dual circulation

Under the strategic goals of carbon peak and neutrality, controlling the total amount and intensity of energy consumption is crucial, and mapping the embodied energy flows could be helpful to realize the differentiated management of regional energy consumption dual control and facilitate high-quality coordinated regional development. In the meantime, China has proposed to accelerate the establishment of a “dual circulation” development pattern in which the domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while the international economic cycle remains its extension and supplement. This study accounts for the energy footprints (oil, gas, and coal) of Chinese provinces by nesting the Chinese inter-provincial multi-regional input-output model and the global multi-regional input-output models, keeping in mind both internal and international imperatives, and then analyzes the flow direction, distribution and structural characteristics of trade embodied energy between countries and regions. The results show that: (ⅰ) the consumption of embodied energy is dominated by coal in China. There are significant differences in fossil energy consumption among provinces, Shandong, Guangdong, Henan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang's embodied energy consumption ranked in the top five in China. The northwest region's embodied energy consumption accounts for only 5.12% of the country's total consumption. The national per capita consumption of embodied energy is higher than the world average. Provincial per capita embodied energy consumption is significantly correlated with per capita GDP. (ⅱ) The international trade embodied energy flows in inland regions are dominated by coal, while that in the coastal regions such as Guangdong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang by oil and gas. The US, EU, Japan, Korea, and Russia are the main embodied energy trading partners. (ⅲ) There is a spatial mismatch between energy supply and demand on the consumption side, mainly flowing from the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the northern coastal areas to the eastern and southern coastal areas. Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu are the main inter-provincial sources of embodied energy exports, while Zhejiang, Guangdong, Henan and Chongqing are the main embodied energy import destinations. (ⅳ) Compared with international trade, the impact of inter-provincial trade on the dual control of energy consumption in provinces is large and heterogeneous. Specifically, the embodied energy trade leads to a significant increase in total energy consumption and intensity in Shanxi, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, while a significant decrease in Beijing, Chongqing and Jilin. However, domestic and international trade has less impact on dual control of energy consumption in Gansu, Guizhou, Qinghai, Henan, and Shaanxi.