Predicting potential suitable distribution areas of three aphidophagous predator species in China

This study aimed to clarify the shifts in suitable habitats of dominant aphid predators under current and future climate change conditions.

Using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, we simulated the distribution changes in suitable areas for two common predatory ladybirds (Harmonia axyridis and Propylea japonica) and one predatory hoverfly (Eupeodes corollae) under both current and future climatic scenarios.

Under future climate conditions, the potentially suitable areas for both H. axyridis and P. japonica showed a trend of shifting towards higher latitudes and altitudes. In contrast, the suitable area for E. corollae showed no significant change. Under the two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP245 and SSP585, most areas of South China are projected to become unsuitable for H. axyridis and P. japonica during the period 2061-2080. Furthermore, the overlapping suitable areas between any two of the three predator species are projected to decrease in the future.

By analyzing the distribution of suitable areas for two representative groups of predatory natural enemies under future climate scenarios, this study reveals the potential impact of climate change on the synergistic control of aphid pests by multiple predator species. The findings provide a theoretical basis for the scientific conservation and utilization of diverse predatory natural enemies for coordinated aphid management under climate change.