Potential geographic distribution of the Chrysodeixis chalcites in China based on the Biomod2 model

Global climate change has a significant impact on the spread of plant pests. Chrysodeixis chalcites (Esper) is one of the most serious lepidopteran pests, causing damage to a wide range of fruits, vegetables, and ornamental plants. Understanding the potential suitable habitats and their changing trends for C. chalcites in China is of great significance for its early management and quarantine control.

In this study, we used the Biomod2 model to identify the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of C. chalcites and to predict its potential suitable habitats under historical and four future climate scenarios.

We found that the suitable range of C. chalcites in China is mainly concentrated in the southern part, and under climate change, the potential suitable habitats for C. chalcites do not show significant changes. Specifically, under the SSP245 climate scenario, the potential suitable area slightly expanded, while under the other climate scenarios, the area of suitable habitats decreased to varying degrees. Monitoring efforts for C. chalcites should be focused on areas within these suitable habitats. The critical environmental variables affecting the potential geographic distribution of C. chalcites were BIO2 (Mean Diurnal Range), BIO3 (Isothermality), BIO4 (Temperature Seasonality), BIO5 (Max Temperature of Warmest Month), BIO12 (Annual Precipitation), BIO14 (Precipitation of Driest Month) and BIO18 (Precipitation of Warmest Quarter).

This study aims to provide a theoretical basis for the monitoring and quarantine, and control strategies against C. chalcites in China.