Effects of climate change on the suitable habitat of Neoclytus acuminatus in China

Neoclytus acuminatus (Fabricius) is a regionally important forestry pest that can easily spread via cargo transportation. In recent years, this insect has been frequently intercepted at ports of China, indicating substantial invasion risks. Determining its potential distribution in China under current and future climatic conditions, along with identifying key climatic factors affecting its survival, holds crucial significance for early warning strategies. In this study, 1138 existing distribution records of N. acuminatus and environmental variables were collected to predict its suitable habitats in China by using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS. Results showed that under current climatic conditions, N. acuminatus has extensive suitable areas in China, primarily concentrated in North, Central, East, and South China. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, the potential suitable area shows a moderate contraction; under SSP2-4.5 scenario, the suitable area expands; under SSP3-7.0 scenario, it shows no significant changes; under SSP5-8.5 scenario, it shows a substantial contraction. Precipitation of the driest month and maximum temperature of the warmest month predominantly govern its potential distribution. These findings provide a theoretical basis for risk assessment and early warning strategies against N. acuminatus.