Potential distribution area of Pseudococcus viburni (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) in the world based on MaxEnt model

The obscure mealybug, Pseudococcus viburni, is an important polyphagous pest of deciduous fruit trees with a high risk of potential damage to important fruits such as apples, pears and grapes. The obscure mealybug occurs in several countries around the world, causing serious economic losses, and has been reported to be invasive in several districts of Yunnan in China. This study aims to identify the potential geographic distribution areas of P. viburni to provide data support for risk assessment and management of this pest. Based on 46 effective distribution records and 19 bio-environmental factors, the potential geographic distribution areas of P. viburni in China and in global, at present and 20 years later, were identified by the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS. The major environmental factors affecting the geographic distribution were evaluated by the contribution rate of the integrated environmental variables and the jackknife test. The potential distribution areas of dark-colored mealybugs globally mainly included. The results showed that the main environmental factors affecting the geographic distribution of P. viburni were the minimum temperature of coldest month (bio6), the mean temperature of warmest quarter (bio10), and the annual range of temperature (bio7). The potential global distribution areas of P. viburni mainly include the Pacific coast of North America, the southern part of South America, the western part of Europe and the Mediterranean coast, the southern part of Africa, the southeastern part of Australia, and the southern part of Asia, mainly the southern part of China. In China, the potential distribution areas are mainly concentrated in the Jianghuai Basin, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, South China and Southwest China. In 20 years, the global range of P. viburni will increase significantly on the basis of the original, and the range in China will increase from 23.46% to 28.44% of the total land area. The obscure mealybugs have been recorded to invade into Yunnan, and have risks of colonization and proliferation in China, which is a potential threat to the existing epidemic prevention and management in China. It is recommended that the epidemic management departments of agriculture, forestry and ports should strengthen the investigation, quarantine and monitoring to prevent P. viburni from causing harm to China's agriculture and forestry industries.