Prediction of the potential distribution areas of Leptoglossus occidentalis in China—a newly invasive species under climate change

Leptoglossus occidentalis Heidemann is a pest that poses a threat to conifer forests worldwide. In China, it was first found in Weihai and Qingdao in 2021, and was a newly invasive species. This study was conducted to clarify its potential distribution in China and predict its spatial dynamics under future climate change. Utilizing 824 global occurrence records and 12 selected environmental variables, and based on the MaxEnt3.4.1 and ArcGIS10.5 software, we predicted its dynamic changes of the spatial distribution patterns (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2080-2100) distribution under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the 6^th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The MaxEnt model evaluation using ROC curves showed that the training and test AUC values of L. occidentalis were 0.943 and 0.944, respectively, indicating excellent predictive performance and high reliability. Under current climatic conditions, the total potential distribution area of L. occidentalis in China spans 1.95 × 10⁶ km² across 21 provinces or regions. Future projections under climate change scenarios suggest a slight overall reduction in suitable habitat compared to current conditions, with a fluctuating trend of initial decline, followed by an increase and subsequent decrease. The changing trends in low-forcing (SSP1-2.6) and high-forcing (SSP5-8.5) scenarios are consistent, peaking during 2061-2080. L. occidentalis poses a serious threat due to its high damaging potential and rapid spread, with a wide potential distribution range in China. This study provides an early warning for its invasion and expansion, and offers a scientific basis for its management and integrated control.